Veteran analyst revisits Ford stock price after earnings

Ford shares have been on fire since last week's earnings release as the company continues its record-setting pace in 2025.

Shares are up nearly 7% over the past five sessions, thanks to the top- and bottom-line beats, but it wasn't all good news in the third quarter at the Blue Oval.

Ford total U.S. sales by year:

• 2024: 2.08 million vehicles sold, +4.2%
• 2023: 1.99 million vehicles sold, +7.1%
• 2022: 1.77 million vehicles sold, -2.2%
• 2021: 1.9 million vehicles sold, -6.8%

Ford Model e, the company's electric vehicle division, had its best month of sales ever as buyers flocked to dealerships to take advantage of the $7,500 EV tax credit that expired in September.

Despite those sales, Model e lost $1.4 billion due to spending on new products and increased competition, according to Ford.

But overall, the company's quarter was enough for a veteran analyst to raise his price target on the company.

Ford's balance sheet gives strong foundation for future growth

Ford reported earnings of 45 cents per share in the third quarter on record revenue of $50.5 billion, a 9.3% year-over-year increase. Analysts were expecting earnings of 38 cents per share.

Net income of $2.4 billion is more than double the $900 million it reported a year ago.

Ford's balance sheet impressed Stephen "Sarge" Guilfoyle, president of Sarge986 and contributor to TheStreet.

Ford reported a cash balance of $32.7 billion, which becomes $37.9 billion if longer-term investments are included. Ford has 1.056 billion in short-term borrowings on its books and $17.096 billion in long-term debt.

"These numbers are actually outstanding for a large industrial corporation that often struggles with having to carry large inventories and dealing with expensive labor issues," Guilfoyle said.

He raised his price target to $16 per share from $12 per share.

Guilfoyle notes that the $1 billion tariff headwind the company faces will weigh on its bottom line, but noted that the price tag is half of what Ford had previously projected.

Ford also lowered its projected full-year adjusted EBIT expectation to between $6 billion and $6.5 billion, down from its previous view between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion.

Ford Model e continues to lose big bucks

Coming into the year, Ford expected Model e to lose about $5 billion, and the good feelings about EV adoption have dissipated under the new presidential administration.

According to J.D. Power, electric vehicles are on pace to exceed 12% market share in the U.S. for the first time, following a 2.6% year-over-year increase.

But thanks to both private and government investment, China and Europe have the underlying infrastructure (i.e., charging stations) to support market shares that dwarf those of the U.S. 

Still, Ford has already outlined a multibillion-dollar strategy that will help it pivot as emissions rules are relaxed and the company no longer has to buy emissions credits from rivals such as Tesla.

That strategy includes a slower electric rollout and a greater focus on hybrids. Looser emission standards could also lift sales for Ford’s traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.

Since it already has a plan for two regulatory realities, Jefferies analysts say Ford is better prepared for any potential changes than its rival General Motors.

Related: Ford CEO Jim Farley targets major problem with its cars