World Cup 2023 Scenarios: Who can be the last two semi-finalists and how?

Sri Lanka are out of the 2023 Cricket World Cup after a defeat to Bangladesh in Delhi on Monday. Bangladesh, who are already out of the tournament, inflicted a three-wicket win over the Island Nation to eliminate Kusal Mendis and Co in the match that made headlines for Angelo Mathews becoming the first cricketer in international cricket to get timed out.

World Cup 2023: News | Schedule | Results | Points table

Sri Lanka are out but five teams are still fighting for the remaining two semi-final spot. India and South Africa have already qualified but Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the Netherlands are still in the race. We take a look at how these teams can qualify.

Read: Why Angelo Mathews was dismissed ‘Timed Out’ during BAN vs SL game? 

Australia
Points: 10
Net run rate: +0.924
Remaining matches: Afghanistan (November 7), Bangladesh (November 11)

One win out of two remaining matches will be enough for Australia. In fact, they can leapfrog South Africa, who have 12 points, if they win their next two matches with good margins.

Australia can qualify despite two defeats if their net run rate (NRR) remains healthy enough.

New Zealand
Points: 8
Net run rate: +0.398
Remaining match: Sri Lanka (November 9)

The Kiwis need to win their last match and hope Afghanistan lose at least one of their two matches. They can also qualify by losing to Sri Lanka but for that Pakistan and Afghanistan should not win their matches and New Zealand must stay ahead on NRR.

Pakistan
Points: 8
Net run rate: +0.036
Remaining fixture: England (November 11)

Babar Azam and Co will be almost out if they lose to England but if they win then they will not want New Zealand and Afghanistan to win. Pakistan can qualify on NRR if New Zealand defeat Sri Lanka by a small margin and Pakistan thrash England by 130 runs.

Also if New Zealand and Sri Lanka ends in no result and Afghanistan win only one of their match but their NRR is not strong enough.

Afghanistan
Points: 8
Net run rate: -0.330
Remaining fixtures: Australia (November 7), South Africa (November 10)

Afghanistan have two matches left so all they need is two wins and reach the semi-finals. They can also qualify with just one win if Sri Lanka defeat New Zealand and England thrash Pakistan.

If New Zealand and Pakistan win their respective matches, and Afghanistan win only one then the Afghan Atalans could be knocked out as their NRR is poorer.

Netherlands
Points: 4
Net run rate: -1.398
Remaining fixtures: England (November 8), India (November 12)

The Netherlands first need to win their two matches and even that may prove to be insufficient. Their only chance to qualify is if the four-placed team fails to reach more than eight points but NRR mostly would be a problem even then.