Analyst revises Hasbro stock price on outlook for 'Magic: The Gathering'

Here's what could happen next to Hasbro shares.

Apr 20, 2024 - 06:30

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Analyst revises Hasbro stock price on outlook for 'Magic: The Gathering'

If you like "Transformers," then Sotheby's has a ride for you.

The iconic auction house is putting a 2015 Bugatti Veyron 16.4 Grand Sport Vitesse on the block.

But this isn't just any old Bugatti, buddy.

This awesome set of wheels was specially commissioned by its original owner, who just loved the "Transformers," the robots that can change into vehicles and other forms.

The vehicle has an Autobot symbol adorning the hood and other "Transformers"-related features. It's got just 5,200 km (3,200 miles) on it.

If you're interested, bidding starts May 1. NeedtoKnow.co.uk reports the pre-auction estimate at $1.86 million.

And if it sounds a little too rich for your blood, well, there's always the toy line.

Transformers are just one of many toys and games brought to you by Hasbro (HAS) , which was founded by the Hassenfeld brothers in Providence, R.I., in 1932

The company started off selling textile remnants, but time moved on, and now Hasbro owns such famous brands as G.I. Joe, Power Rangers, Monopoly, and Twister, as well as franchises like Peppa Pig and PJ Masks. It's also behind the popular, collectible trading card game Magic: The Gathering, or MTG.

Sotheby's is auctioning a specially designed Bugatti based on Hasbro's Transformers. Magic: The Gathering is another one of Hasbro's top brands.
Sotheby's

Hasbro CEO: 'operational rigor' but Magic 'headwinds'

Hasbro is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on April 24.

Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect the company to post a profit of 25 cents a share on $747.1 million in revenue. A year earlier, Hasbro earned 1 cent a share on $1 billion in revenue.

Hasbro had a rough fourth quarter. The company posted adjusted earnings of 38 cents a share, below FactSet's call for 63 cents a share. Revenue totaled $1.29 billion, compared with Wall Street's forecast of $1.34 billion.

Hasbro cut 1,000, or roughly 20%, of its employees in December. The action followed the elimination of nearly 800 jobs earlier in the year.

During the company's earnings call with analysts, Chief Executive Chris Cocks said Hasbro "was entering 2024 with a healthier balance sheet, a leaner cost structure, and an operational rigor that will maintain and build on these improvements in the quarters ahead."

"While 2023 was challenging and we still expect the toy industry to face near-term headwinds, we believe we're taking the necessary steps to turn around our consumer products business," Cocks said.

Ahead of the earnings report, Bank of America analysts raised the investment firm's price target on Hasbro to $60 from $51 while affirming a neutral rating.

The analysts slashed their first-quarter estimate to 24 cents a share from 45 cents to reflect a cut in their consumer product revenue forecast. They see "continued headwinds" before new innovation is launched in the year's second half.

B of A is modeling a 4% decline in full-year revenue from the Wizards and Digital Gaming segment, given what analysts said is significant second-half pressure as Hasbro laps the success of "Baldur's Gate III" and the "Magic Lord of the Rings" set.

"Magic: The Gathering" was released in 1993 by Hasbro's Wizards of the Coast subsidiary and it is described as the first trading-card game. It's Hasbro's first brand to eclipse $1 billion in sales.

Analysts see Magic momentum return in 2025

The game had about 50 million players — roughly the population of South Korea--as of February 2023. There are also videogame adaptions of the game.

It has been a huge success for Hasbro.

"MAGIC had another record year in ‘23 with a string of amazing new sets, including our best-selling set of all time, The Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-Earth. While a product like Lord of the Rings creates a tough comp in 2024, we have some unique sets that fans are eagerly anticipating, including March's Fallout," said Cocks.

The Fallout release is based on the popular post-apocalyptic video game.

B of A said that "Magic: The Gathering" is expected to be flat to slightly down in 2024 despite the same number of premier sets releases as Hasbro laps more than $200 million in revenue last year from "Magic Lord of the Rings."

More Wall Street Analysts:

The analysts said Hasbro should benefit from the success of Monopoly Go!, a single-player mobile board game based on the classic Monopoly game, which dates back to 1903.

They said the game should move off of minimum guarantees in the second half and help almost fully offset the $90 million contribution from "Baldur's Gate III" in 2023.

Eugene Evans, senior vice president of digital strategy and licensing for Hasbro and "Wizards of the Coast," recently told PCGamer that the company wanted to make another "Baldur’s Gate" sequel.

"We're now talking to lots of partners and being approached by a lot of partners who are embracing the challenge of: What does the future of the 'Baldur's Gate' franchise look like?" he said. "So we certainly hope that it's not another 25 years, as it was from 'Baldur's Gate 2' to 3, before we answer that."

"But we're going to take our time and find the right partner, the right approach, and the right product that could represent the future of 'Baldur's Gate.'”

B of A analysts see Hasbro set up for stronger 2025 momentum.

The company could benefit from a full year of royalties beyond minimum guarantees for Monopoly Go! and from a return to growth for Magic.

Hasbro is expected to expand MTG's "Universes Beyond" sub-brand lineup to include two premier sets per year in 2025, including Final Fantasy, based on a popular role-playing video game.

B of A also cited a return to low-single-digit consumer-products growth as the toy industry returns to more normalized levels and the theatrical content slate improves.

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