How Dhankar’s elevation is in sync with BJP strategy of wooing voters outside its core vote banks

The announcement of Jagdeep Dhankar, a Jat from Rajasthan and the present governor of West Bengal, as the BJP’s vice-presidential candidate follows a pattern that is unique to the party.

While political parties generally guard their core vote bases, the BJP has made the policy of reaching out to social groups outside its core the hallmark of its politics. The elevation of Dhankar, a Jat, and Droupadi Murmu, a tribal, send out similar messages.

BJP’s expansion

The BJP’s continuing expansion can best be seen in terms of this strategy. Most political parties — including the Congress in its heyday — focus on keeping their core vote banks happy. The Congress got weakened in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar decades back precisely because it focused on its core rainbow coalition of the so-called upper castes, Muslims and Dalits, and did not reach out to the castes that are in the OBC list now. These caste groups became the backbone of anti-Congressism and, once Muslims shifted towards Lohiaiite politics because they felt that the Congress did not do enough to save the Babri mosque, Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janata Dal became prime political players and the Congress lost all its vote banks. The upper castes sided with the BJP because of the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation and significant sections of Dalits decided to vote for the BSP, a Dalit party.

Political parties focus on their core votes because their relationship with their core voters is transactional. The voters want to be given primacy as a social constituency and vote for the party that can offer them this primacy on a variety of grounds, be it caste, religion or region.

However, the BJP has the advantage of having very committed core vote banks among upper caste Hindus, the prime constituency of the party since the Jana Sangh days. For, Hindutva is the magnet that pulls these sections – who identify with the BJP and also feel that Hindutva being in power automatically offers them symbolic status — towards the party. In its earlier avatar under Vajpayee, the BJP focused on this core base and also tried to reach out to smaller OBC castes. This strategy ensured the party was always in the fray but also became an impediment, as the upper castes do not have the demographic weight to catapult the party to a Lok Sabha majority.

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Narendra Modi nuanced his electoral strategy in a way that ensured that the BJP could scale new heights. The BJP under his leadership has devised an interesting strategy: offer Hindutva and even representation to the core base and enter into a transactional relationship with social groups outside the core base by giving them greater representation. In return for the increased representation, these groups come closer to Hindutva, and this helps the ideology grow from strength to strength by bringing diverse caste groups under the umbrella of Hindutva, the core aspiration of the idea of Hindu Sangathan, which the RSS sees as its ultimate goal.

Nuanced strategy

For the first few years after 2014, the BJP reached out to smaller castes in various states, virtually ignoring the dominant castes. This strategy was followed in Maharashtra, where the Marathas were somewhat sidelined, in Haryana, where a non-Jat was made chief minister, and also in UP, where smaller OBC castes were wooed, sidelining the Yadavs, a large OBC caste. This made the BJP reach out to large numbers of OBC and Dalit castes, which decided to vote for it in return for greater representation and embraced Hindutva.

Recent times show a twin strategy: retain smaller OBC castes and Dalits by appointing their leaders to key posts and also reach out to the dominant Hindu castes. The BJP has supported Eknath Shinde, a Maratha, as Maharashtra chief minister and has now decided to reach out to Jats in north-west India through the elevation of Dhankar. And since the BJP does not field Muslims in elections and also neglects them in key appointments, it can increase the representation of diverse Hindu castes without diminishing the representation of the so-called upper castes, its core constituency, who also feel symbolically empowered as Hindutva, an ideology they identify with, is in pole position.

If its presidential candidate Droupadi Murmu has been fielded to deepen the BJP’s tribal outreach — Scheduled Tribes have increasingly veered towards the party in recent years — and also reach out to Odisha, the state to which she belongs, and Bengal and Jharkhand, where her tribe, the Santals, is found in significant numbers, the candidature of Dhankar is aimed at reaching out to the Jats, a dominant, agrarian, caste. The reason: Jats of Haryana and Jat-Sikhs of Punjab are believed to be unhappy with the party since the one-year-long farm agitation that culminated in the repeal of the three farm laws that the Narendra Modi government had legislated.

The step is, in addition, a symbolic gesture to Dhankar’s state, Rajasthan, which goes to the polls in 2023.

After the repeal of the farm laws, Jats of western Uttar Pradesh seem to have voted for the BJP in significant numbers, as the party could win 46 out of 58 seats in western Uttar Pradesh, which has an influential Jat vote and a significant Muslim population too.

The BJP’s weak point right now is Punjab, a Sikh-majority state, where Jat-Sikhs constitute the dominant caste. Haryana, which the BJP had comfortably breached when Modi was made its national leader in 2014, is believed to be another possible weak link, as it was a hub of the farm agitation. What makes Haryana anybody’s game in the next elections is the fact that Bhupinder Singh Hooda, a Jat, is the tallest Congress leader in the state right now.

Dhankar’s candidature is a symbolic gesture to the Jats in order to ensure that the party does well in Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, which also has a significant Jat population. Jats in Rajasthan became open to voting for the BJP when Atal Bihari Vajpayee brought them in the OBC list, a step in which Dhankar was actively involved. Before that, while Rajputs, the traditional dominant caste of the state, were with the BJP, Jats, the challengers of Rajput dominance, were Congress supporters. No such differentiation now exists, but Dhankar’s becoming the Vice-President of India and, by implication, the ex-officio chairman of the Rajya Sabha, is being seen as a move that is likely to make Jats veer towards the BJP in larger numbers in the state.

Opposition parties have little hope of halting the BJP’s juggernaut till they come out with a strategy that can counter the BJP’s twin strategy of Hindutva for the core constituency and increased representation for groups outside its traditional vote base.

The author is a journalist and media educator. The views expressed are personal.

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