IPL Qualification Scenarios: LSG help their playoff chances, MI in tough place

Lucknow Super Giants helped their chances of making the IPL playoffs a massive boost with the edge-of-the-seat-win against Mumbai Indians at the Ekana Stadium on Tuesday. The 5-run win means they are still in with a chance of reaching the playoffs but MI could well be out even if they win their only remaining fixture.

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So, with seven games left and three spots up for grabs, we take a look at each team’s fixtures and what they need to do to make the playoffs.

Chennai Super Kings (13 matches, 15 points, +0.381 NRR)

Remaining match: vs DC (20 May in Delhi)

A win against DC in their last league game will assure them of a playoff spot and most likely a top-two finish. That can only happen if they maintain their superior NRR compared to Lucknow who can also get to 17 points with a victory. If CSK lose to Delhi, they would need not more than two of LSG, RCB, MI or PBKS to do better than them.

Lucknow Super Giants (13 matches, 15 points, +0.304 NRR)

Remaining match: vs KKR (20 May in Kolkata)

The win against MI consolidated Lucknow’s position in the league table. If LSG beat KKR in the final game, at Eden Gardens, they progress to the playoffs and can make it to the top-two if CSK either lose theirs or if LSG improve their NRR compared to Chennai.

If LSG lose to KKR on Saturday, they will need at least two of CSK, MI, RCB and PBKS to not do better than 15 points.

Mumbai Indians (13 matches, 14 points, -0.128 NRR)

Remaining match: vs SRH (21 May in Mumbai)

Mumbai’s loss in Lucknow means they’re now dependent on other teams for their fate even if they beat SRH on Sunday. Three teams, including MI, can finish on 16 points – RCB and PBKS being the other two. If that is the way things unfold, Bangalore will help their NRR further compared to MI’s -0.128. PBKS and MI could run close on NRR tie-breaker with Shikhar Dhawan’s side currently on -0.268.

However, if any of RCB, LSG, CSK and PBKS lose, then MI’s chances improve. Playing on the last day of the league stage, Mumbai will likely know what they need to do to qualify. Coming against SRH at home, where they’ve been 4-2 this season, will further boost their confidence.

If MI lose to SRH, five teams could potentially be vying for one spot and it will all come down to the net run rate.

Royal Challengers Bangalore (12 matches, 12 points, +0.166 NRR)

Remaining matches: vs SRH (18 May in Hyderabad), vs GT (21 May in Bengaluru)

The 112-run win in Jaipur is just what RCB, or any team, needs in a closely contested league. The win meant they could reach 16 points and could fend off competition with a better NRR – which jumped from -0.345 to +0.166. If RCB win their last two matches, they are likely assured of playoff spot given their positive NRR.

If they win only one, they will need MI to lose their match and hope PBKS drop one of theirs too. In that case, all three will be on 14 points with net run rate the clincher.

However, if RCB lose both of their remaining games, then it’s curtains for them and their ambitions of winning a first IPL title.

Rajasthan Royals (13 matches, 12 points, +0.140 NRR)

Remaining match: vs PBKS (19 May in Dharamsala)

Royals can get to 14 points at the most this season if they beat PBKS. With that, they need plenty of other results to go their way if they are to make the playoffs. Five teams can finish on 14 points and if stars align, they could pip RCB for the solitary spot provided they win and do enough to leapfrog RCB’s net run rate.

Kolkata Knight Riders (13 matches, 12 points, -0.256 NRR)

Remaining match: vs LSG (20 May in Kolkata)

KKR’s first win at Chepauk in 11 years has kept them alive but the chances are slim. If KKR beat LSG at home, they’d have to hope RCB have to lose their only fixture and PBKS one of theirs. They would also need SRH to beat MI to keep them on 14 points. In that case, NRR will decide their fate. As of right now, KKR’s net run rate is worse than MI, RCB and RR among the teams who can finish on 14 points. In case KKR go down to LSG, they will be eliminated.

Punjab Kings (12 matches, 12 points, -0.268 NRR)

Remaining matches: vs DC (17 May in Dharamsala), vs RR (19 May in Dharamsala)

PBKS have the chance to reach 14 points and are still mathematically alive in the competition but their net run rate of -0.268 doesn’t instill confidence. Even if PBKS win against DC and RR in their last two matches, both at their adopted home in Dharamsala, they get to 16 points and RCB can match that with wins of their own. To give themselves a chance, PBKS need to win big against DC to keep things interesting. If PBKS lose one of the two, 14 points is unlikely to be enough.

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