Jobs data in focus as pay deals, hiring complicate Fed inflation task

Jobs data will be back in focus Thursday as markets continue to key on the labor market for clues as to the pace of inflation heading into the autumn and the Fed's likely reaction to a wage-fueled spike in consumer price pressures.

Aug 24, 2023 - 18:30

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Jobs data in focus as pay deals, hiring complicate Fed inflation task

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish its estimate of new applications for jobless benefits Thursday as markets continue to key on strength in the labor market to both dictate their inflation forecasts and calibrate the Federal Reserve's reaction to any autumn resurgence in price pressures.

Around 240,000 people filed new applications for the week ending on August 19, the BLS is likely to report, compared to the prior tally of 239,000 and just ahead of the recent four-week average of 232,000.

Labor market strength, and the wage gains that generally support it, have been a consistent concern for the Fed as the broader economy continues to defy recession forecasts.

The BLS reported last month that average hourly earnings rose 4.4% from a year earlier, and 0.3% from June, even as the overall tally of new jobs created slowed to 187,000 the lowest since December of 2020.

Delivery giant UPS UPS reached a labor agreement with the Teamsters Union last month, which was ratified this week, that will pay workers $21 per hour -- a 31.25% increase -- and more experienced drivers as much as $50 per hour.

The United Autoworkers' Union, meanwhile, is demanding a 40% increase for its members as it starts negotiations with Ford F, General Motors GM and Stellantis on a contract that was last agreed in 2019.

The BLS said Wednesday that its regular revision of payroll statistics suggests jobs growth was overstated by around 306,000 positions, a figure that won't likely alter estimates of headline unemployment or the broader trajectory of the labor market over the first eight months of the year.

"Any meaningful slowing in payroll growth will have to come through lower gross hiring, but the key measure here, in the form of the (National Federation of Independent Businesses) hiring intentions measure, also has been steady recently and is consistent with private job growth of about 200K per month," said Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics.

The Labor Department will publish its next monthly jobs report on Friday September 1.