Karnataka Results: What the poll outcome means as 2024 nears
Karnataka Results: What the poll outcome means as 2024 nears
Congress’ resounding victory in Karnataka over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will certainly boost the confidence of its leaders and rank and file. The Grand Old Party, which had unseated the saffron party from Himachal Pradesh last December, won the southern state by securing 135 seats in the 224-member House. The BJP was reduced to 66 constituencies and the Janata Dal (Secular)’s hope of playing the kingmaker was dashed as it managed to win only 19 seats.
With Karnataka, the BJP has lost the only southern state it was ruling. Karnataka election results have set the stage for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. But will the outcomes have any impact on the general elections? Let’s understand.
What do past results indicate?
In 2018, the Congress formed the government in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. However, its government in MP collapsed due to the defection by dozens of MLAs to the BJP following the rebellion by Jyotiraditya Scindia.
Despite losing the state elections, the BJP secured 62 out of the total 65 seats in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, noted Hindustan Times.
In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, the BJP failed to touch the majority mark of 113. However, the party won 25 out of 28 parliamentary seats in the state in the last Lok Sabha polls.
The Congress, which had bagged 80 seats in the 2018 Karnataka Assembly polls, gained only one Lok Sabha seat from the southern state in 2019.
In 2013, Congress had won 122 Assembly seats in Karnataka to form the government. But in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Grand Old Party won only nine seats, while the saffron party secured 17 seats.
What Karnataka defeat means for the BJP?
Despite efforts by the central leadership, the BJP performed “below par” across Karnataka, including in its strongholds like Bengaluru, according to Indian Express.
BJP’s prominent leaders, including former Karnataka chief minister BS Yediyurappa and Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, have already declared that the Karnataka rout will have no bearing on the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
However, BJP’s plans for expanding its footprint in southern India may get a setback. South India accounts for 130 out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats.
In 2019 polls, the saffron party won 29 of the 130 seats, the majority of which were from Karnataka – 25.
It remains to be seen how and if the Karnataka Assembly loss will impact the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally in the region.
Although the saffron party’s drubbing at the hands of Congress in the head-to-head battle in Karnataka can affect its cadres’ morale, people vote on different issues in state and national elections.
A senior central BJP leader told ThePrint that the saffron party is focusing on five main factors to triumph in south in the Lok Sabha elections: “the popularity of Narendra Modi, the labharthi constituency (beneficiaries of welfare schemes), regional leaders who support the PM’s vision, Hindutva, and our election-winning organisational machinery.”
Even if Karnataka results do not make a dent in BJP’s national calculations, its plans for improving its base in Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh are likely to become more challenging, according to ThePrint.
Dr SY Surendra Kumar, a political science professor at Bangalore University, told ThePrint that “the BJP now faces even more of an uphill climb in southern India, including in Telangana, which is due to go to polls at the end of the year.”
The BJP’s Hindutva push has “limited appeal” in southern India, the professor added. It seems the Karnataka results have proved that.
ALSO READ: Karnataka Results: The states where the Congress is in power
What about Congress?
Congress will get a much-needed shot in the arm with the Karnataka win. The party had not won a major state since 2018.
Its humiliating electoral drubbings in the last two Lok Sabha polls had made matters worse for the Grand Old Party.
This time, the Congress took on the BJP’s election juggernaut and scripted its largest-ever win in the southern state. Moreover, the narrative that Congress cannot win in a direct contest with the BJP has been busted.
The Grand Old Party will likely have more leverage with the other Opposition parties in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress will need the support of anti-BJP parties to challenge Prime Minister Narendra Modi whose popularity remains intact on a national level.
While many issues worked for the Congress in Karnataka such as anti-incumbency and Bommai government’s alleged corruption, besides a robust regional leadership and a coherent campaign, the national elections are a different ballgame altogether.
However, boosted by the results, Congress is expected to put up a decent fight in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, as per The Wire.
With inputs from agencies
Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News,
India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.
What's Your Reaction?
