Nitish Kumar’s switch to the Grand Alliance could hurt the BJP in more ways than one. Here’s how

Janata Dal (United) {JD[U]} leader Nitish Kumar on Tuesday broke ranks with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Bihar and staked claim as head of the rival ‘Mahagathbandhan’ (Grand Alliance) to be chief minister of the state for the eighth time. The 71-year-old leader will be sworn in today at 2 pm along with his deputy Tejashwi Yadav from the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

With Nitish’s new turn, his moniker of ‘Paltu Ram’ of politics remains intact. In fact, the BJP was left fuming on Tuesday at his volte face, accusing him of being a habitual betrayer who was pushing Bihar into the abyss of lawlessness and corruption by entering into a fresh alliance with the RJD.

Senior leader Sushil Kumar Modi, who had served as Kumar’s deputy for more than a decade and is considered as his most trusted man in the BJP, accused the former boss of telling blatant lie.

“It is a blatant lie that BJP had made RCP Singh a minister without the consent of Nitish ji. Another lie is that the BJP was trying to split the JD(U). He was looking for an excuse to break ties. The BJP will return to power with a thumping majority in 2024,” Modi tweeted.

यह सरासर सफ़ेद झूठ है कि भाजपा ने बिना नीतीशजी की सहमति के आरसीपी को मंत्री बनाया था।यह भी झूठ है की भाजपा JDU को तोड़ना चाहती थी।तोड़ने का बहाना खोज रहे थे।भाजपा २४ में प्रचंड बहुमत से आएगी।@ANI @News18India @ABPNews @ZeeBiharNews

— Sushil Kumar Modi (@SushilModi) August 9, 2022

While the BJP may accuse him of betraying them, political observers note that Nitish’s sway to the Grand Alliance is, in fact, a calculated move by the Bihar stalwart, keeping his ambitions for playing a role on the national stage in mind.

What does it mean for the Grand Alliance? How will the JD(U)’s switch hurt the BJP? We examine the implications of Nitish Kumar’s move.

The maths of it all

A switch to the Mahagathbandhan suits Nitish in terms of numbers.

The JD(U) has 45 MLAs and it also has the support of an independent candidate Sumit Singh. Lok Janshakti Party MLA Raj Kumar Singh also merged with the JD(U). Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) has already decided to stay with Nitish Kumar. The HAM has 4 MLAs. And, the final count of MLAs with Nitish Kumar is 51.

On the other hand, the RJD has 79 MLAs after one of their leaders lost his legislation; they are the single largest party in Bihar Assembly.

Besides the RJD, Congress has 19 MLAs, CPI (ML) has 12 MLAs, CPI has 2 and CPI(M) also has 2 seats. Hence, Nitish Kumar will have the support of 165 MLAs.

With the Mahagathbandhan, Nitish now enjoys a majority of 165 in the Assembly, where the majority mark is 122. This will make it more comfortable for him to run the government.

While in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, he had the support of 77 BJP MLAs, 4 from HAM and one independent.

Nitish’s parting ways with the BJP will change politics of not just the Hindi heartland but also have national resonance

A boost to the Opposition

The swiftness with which Nitish Kumar turned the tables on the BJP and staked claim to be the head of the Grand Alliance comes at a time when the Opposition camp is in gloom over the failure of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in Maharashtra.

Many believed that the MVA served as a blueprint for the Opposition to counter the BJP on a national level for the 2024 general elections.

However, the second coming of the Grand Alliance provides the Opposition with a psychological boost and provides clues to the chinks in the BJP’s armour.

The coming together of Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav also sends out a message to one and all that it could very well be the BJP vs the rest in 2024.

The exit of the JD(U) from the NDA, based off their allegations that the BJP was trying to break up the party, also strengthens the narrative that the saffron party swallows up its allies. This would prompt regional parties to steer clear of the BJP, making it difficult for them to cobble up alliances before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Nitish Kumar for PM?

Nitish Kumar was once quoted as saying, as per an Indian Express report, “Jo party ya parivar nahi balki apne dum par zameen se uththa hai, vo satta-bahattar saal par jakar pradhan mantri banne ka mazboot davedaar ban payega” (the one who rises from the grass roots, not through a family or party, but on his own steam, will, in his seventies, become a strong candidate for prime minister).”

Nitish’s parting ways with the BJP will change politics of not just the Hindi heartland but also have national resonance.

Observers note that this move will put him in lead in the race to be the face of the Opposition against Narendra Modi in 2024.

The other options the Opposition has of now is West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. However, she remains unacceptable to the Left and to many Congress leaders. Other names such as Telangana’s K Chandrashekar Rao, NCP chief and Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar, and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal have floated around. However, their credentials aren’t as strong as Nitish Kumar.

Also read: Bihar fiasco: BJP has forgotten to act like a ruling party, needs a crash course on coalition politics

Leaving BJP in the cold

The decision taken by Nitish Kumar to sever the alliance with the BJP will hurt the saffron party — in the short and long run.

Apart from losing immediate power in the Hindi heartland state, the setback will force the BJP to revise their strategy for the eastern flank of India — Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha — where it doesn’t have governments.

The Mahagathbandhan with caste arithmetic on its side will also prove difficult for the BJP to defeat in the upcoming Bihar Assembly elections in 2024.

As Ghanshyam Tiwari, former JD(U) spokesperson wrote for Indian Express, “At a time when the common man is slipping into poverty, caught in daily debates of communal hatred and anger, and cynical about bullet trains, Nitish Kumar promises a cycle ride of progress with harmony and social justice.”

With inputs from agencies

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