Modi wave still strong, AAP’s call for change isn’t loud enough: Takeaways from exit polls in Gujarat and Himachal

After the last vote was polled in Gujarat during the second phase of Assembly elections — an overall turnout of 60.94 per cent was recorded — all eyes turned to the exit polls. Going by the predictions, it’s seventh heaven for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat, while it’s a dead heat in Himachal Pradesh where most pollsters gave an edge to the ruling party over the Congress.

According to all exit polls, the BJP will return to power in Gujarat with a big mandate, winning 117-151 seats in the 182-member Assembly, while the Congress will have to contend with the second position, securing 16-51 seats. The exit polls also predicted that the Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would bag anything between two to 13 seats, helping them acquire the national party status.

In Himachal Pradesh, the exit polls have also predicted a victory for the BJP. However, one of the poll surveys by Aaj Tak-Axis My India has predicted higher seats, 30-40, for Congress as against BJP’s 24-34.

As we now await the final results on 8 December, we try to decode what the exit polls mean for each party and the national political scenario ahead of the gargantuan 2024 general elections.

In Gujarat, it’s all about the BJP

The exit polls have predicted a huge win for the BJP in the western state of Gujarat. This election’s predicted win seems to outdo the last one when the BJP could secure only 99 seats.

In fact, this election seems to put them closer to breaking the 1985 record when the Congress under Madhavasinh Solanki won 149 seats. One of the seven exit polls — Aaj Tak-Axis My India — has predicted the highest 129-151 seats for the party.

It also appears that the recent Morbi bridge collapse in which 135 people lost their lives had no impact on people’s voting.

Moreover, if the exit polls come true it also means that the BJP would secure a government till 2027 since 1990, surpassing West Bengal’s Communist Party of India- Marxist, which ruled the state for 34 years (from 1977 to 2011).

The exit polls also reveal that the Modi wave is still strong in Gujarat and that the calls of change by other parties — the Congress and AAP — don’t have a ring in the state.

Also read: Explained: How are exit polls conducted in India? How accurate are they?

The exit polls also show that the 27 rallies, including the one he had after casting his vote at a polling booth in Ranip, held by Prime Minister Modi had resonance with the public. Monday’s rally also led to the Congress filing a complaint with the Election Commission, stating that a roadshow on an election day, breached the Model Code of Conduct. The Additional Chief Electoral Officer said their reports do not indicate that “it was a roadshow and the crowd was there on its own”.

AAP’s dent in Gujarat

The AAP launched its Gujarat campaign buoyed by its performance in the 2021 civic polls. However, the Gujarat Assembly election shows that the public votes differently in each election — civic, state and national.

The AAP launched an intense campaign in the state, some political pundits observed that AAP’s campaigning was on par with that of the BJP. Its leader and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Mann did as many rallies a day as Modi.

However, the takeaway for the AAP is that Gujarat is perhaps ready for a change, but not yet. The AAP’s campaign resting on the word ‘parivartan’ couldn’t make a dent to the BJP slogan of “Phir ek baar, Modi Sarkar (Once again, Modi government)”. This clearly illustrates that the popularity of Prime Minister Modi is still a potent weapon, one he can use to his advantage in the 2024 general elections.

The AAP, however, can take solace that it will be changing the dynamics of Gujarat elections — presenting a viable third option to the people. Securing some seats in Gujarat will also help the AAP’s expansion plans — turning it from a state entity to a national outfit.

BJP breaks tradition in Himachal Pradesh

The exit polls, barring one, has predicted victory for the BJP in Himachal Pradesh. This is of great significance, as no incumbent government in the hill state has retained power since 1985.

The last time any party won two consecutive terms in Himachal Pradesh was the Congress, which did so in 1982 and 1985, according to the Election Commission.

If the exit polls hold true in Himachal, it would once again illustrate the power of Modi’s presence and his sway over voters. In the run-up to the polls, the prime minister carried out a highly personalised campaign in the state.

Prior to the polls, Modi went on a ribbon cutting spree in the state. On 13 October, he flagged off the Vande Bharat Express train from Amb Andaura to New Delhi in Una. He also dedicated the Indian Institute of Information Technology (IIIT) to the nation, and lay the foundation stone of a Bulk Drug Park. Furthermore, he laid the foundation stones of two hydropower projects and launch the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana-III in Himachal Pradesh.

On 11 November, a day before the state went to the polls, party members delivered a signed letter by him to 1.5 million households urging them to vote back to power the party.

Congress maintains status quo

The exit polls have given the Congress no reason to smile. They have been unable to make a significant impact on the BJP in Gujarat, coming in a distant second. Also, most exit polls have shown that the Grand Old Party will not win in Himachal, which shows that the Gandhi family — Rahul with his Bharat Jodo Yatra and Priyanka personally campaigning in Himachal — has no sway with the voters.

The exit polls may serve as an indicator to the Congress that its ongoing Kanyakumari-to-Kashmir Bharat Jodo Yatra may not be delivering the results it hoped.

This means that the Congress will remain in power only in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

With inputs from agencies

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