Nuclear powers bolster arsenals amid global geo-political tension

The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), China, India, Pakistan, the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, and Israel are the nine nuclear-armed states. In 2022, several of these nations will deploy new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems.

According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), there were approximately 9576 warheads in military stocks for potential use out of the projected 12 512 warheads in the overall world inventory in January 2023, which is 86 more than in January 2022.

A rough estimate of 3844 of those warheads were used with missiles and aircraft, and about 2000 of them, almost all of which belonged to Russia or the United States, were kept on high operational alert, which meant they were attached to missiles or stored at air bases housing nuclear bombers.

Together, Russia and the United States are in possession of about 90% of all nuclear weapons. Despite a drop in nuclear force transparency in both nations following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the quantities of their respective nuclear arsenals (i.e., the number of usable warheads) appear to have stayed largely steady in 2022.

Russia and the United States both have more than 1000 warheads that have been withdrawn from military service and are being slowly dismantled in addition to their operational nuclear arsenals.

China’s nuclear arsenal is estimated to have 410 warheads as of January 2023, up from the 350 weapons SIPRI estimated in January 2022. By the turn of the decade, China might have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the United States or Russia, depending on how it decides to organise its forces.

“China has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal,” Hans M. Kristensen, Associate Senior Fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a statement.

“It is increasingly difficult to square this trend with China’s declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces needed to maintain its national security,” he added.

The UK’s nuclear arsenal is not believed to have grown in 2022, but because the British government announced in 2021 that it was expanding its limit from 225 to 260 warheads, the warhead stockpile is anticipated to grow in the future. The government also said that it would stop disclosing publicly how many nuclear weapons, deployed warheads, or deployed missiles it possessed.

In addition to refurbishing and modernising existing systems, France resumed its plans in 2022 to create a new air-launched cruise missile and a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).

The nuclear arsenals of Pakistan and India both appear to be growing, and in 2022, both nations introduced and continued to develop new nuclear delivery systems. While Pakistan continues to be the major target of India’s nuclear deterrence, it appears that India is emphasising longer-range missiles more and more, particularly ones that can reach targets throughout China.

As a key component of its national security plan, North Korea continues to place a high priority on its military nuclear development. North Korea didn’t conduct any nuclear test explosions in 2022, but it did conduct more than 90 missile launches.

Some of these missiles, including the most recent ICBMs, might be able to transport nuclear warheads. According to SIPRI, the nation has manufactured roughly 30 warheads and has enough fissile material for 50–70 warheads altogether, both of which are major increases beyond predictions for January 2022.

It is also claimed that Israel, which does not publicly acknowledge having nuclear weapons, is modernising its nuclear arsenal.