Rajasthan Assembly Elections 2023: Will anti-incumbency throw out Congress from power?

Rajasthan goes to polls in a month from now. The political power in the desert state has been shifting between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) since the Assembly elections in 1993. As the Grand Old Party tries to hold onto power, the saffron camp will aim to benefit from this tradition of ousting the incumbent.

About 5.25 crore electors will cast ballots for the 200-member Rajasthan Assembly on 25 November, with the counting of votes on 3 December. Both the main political parties in the state have announced multiple lists for the upcoming elections, with the Congress naming 77 candidates and the BJP nominating 124 faces so far.

Who are the key players in the Rajasthan Assembly elections 2023? Which issues are likely to dominate voters’ choices? Let’s take a closer look.

Key players and seats in Rajasthan polls

The Congress has fielded Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot from his sitting constituency of Sardarpura in the Jodhpur district. In the 2018 Assembly elections, he had defeated BJP’s Shambhu Singh Khetasar by over 40,000 votes.

Former deputy chief minister Sachin Pilot is the Congress’ candidate from the Tonk seat. The BJP is yet to announce a candidate against Pilot, who had trounced the saffron party’s Yoonus Khan by a margin of 54,179 votes in 2018 elections.

Congress releases the second list of 43 candidates for the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly Elections.

Govind Ram Meghwal to contest from Khajuwala, Pratap Singh Khachariyawas fielded from Civil Lines, Parsadi Lal Meena from Lolsot. pic.twitter.com/WW4hZ2lwit

— ANI (@ANI) October 22, 2023

The BJP, which sidelined Vasundhara Raje ahead of the polls, has given a ticket to the former chief minister from her stronghold Jhalrapatan, which she has been winning since 2003. Raje comes from the Scindia royal family, the former rulers of Gwalior – now a city in Madhya Pradesh.

Rajsamand MP and another royal Diya Kumari is contesting for the BJP from the Vidyadhar Nagar seat. The sitting Vidyadhar Nagar MLA Narpat Singh Rajvi has been shifted to Chittorgarh. There have been reports that the saffron party is trying to replace Raje with Diya Kumari, who has called the former CM her “mentor”, as per News18.

Rajasthan Assembly Speaker CP Joshi is Congress’ candidate from Nathdwara, while its state president Govind Singh Dotasra is contesting from Laxmangarh.

Vishwaraj Singh Mewar, a descendant of Rajput ruler Maharana Pratap, will challenge CP Joshi as BJP’s candidate from Nathdwara.

The BJP has fielded former Union minister Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore from the Jhotwara constituency. So far, the saffron party has given tickets to over three-fourths of its sitting 70 MLAs, noted Indian Express. 

BJP’s 71-year-old Rajya Sabha MP Kirodi Lal Meena, who has regularly protested against the Gehlot government, is in the Assembly election fray from Sawai Madhopur.

Rajasthan’s key election issues

Rajasthan has seen a prominent rise in the turnout of women voters over the last 20 years, as per Indian Express. The BJP has been blasting the Gehlot government over crime against women, underscoring the “deterioration” of law and order in the state under the Congress rule in the last several months. The Rajasthan government has been on the back foot over several issues, such as atrocities against women and Dalits and alleged corruption charges.

Both the parties have been making efforts to woo the women voters ahead of polling.

The other important constituent for any political party is the young voters of Rajasthan. A little over 22 lakh youth became eligible to vote between the period of 1 January to 1 October this year, reported Indian Express. A first-time voter in Jaipur’s Bani Park area told The Hindu that the youths are seeking a government that would create opportunities for their “all-round development”.

Question paper leaks are another hot topic that could sway voters, especially youngsters. Leaks of papers for government recruitment exams, such as the Rajasthan Eligibility Examination for Teachers (REET), in recent months has put the Gehlot government in a corner. As the issue affects lakhs of unemployed youths, it is likely to influence voters’ preferences in the upcoming elections.

CM Gehlot has been trying to tackle perceived anti-incumbency by highlighting his government’s public welfare schemes. This “revolving door” politics of Rajasthan could favour the BJP. A recent CVoter survey found that the desert state is likely to follow the riwaz of throwing out the incumbent, as per The Quint.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has held many key rallies in Rajasthan, has touched a range of issues, including paper leaks in the recruitment exams and the law and order situation.

The BJP and Congress are both bearing the brunt of factionalism. According to PTI, while Gehlot and Pilot have mended ties for now, their tussle has impacted Congress’ strength in Rajasthan.

The saffron party has tried to woo Raje by giving tickets to several of her key loyalists after sidelining the royal. As per NDTV, the BJP has now decided to utilise the popularity of Raje, who has the support of different voter bases across the state.

Farmers’ issues remain dominant in the north Rajasthan districts, which account for 50 Assembly constituencies and have a large presence of Jat, Muslim and Yadav communities, reported The Hindu. The region had seen huge protests against the Centre’s now-withdrawn three farm laws, which observers told the newspaper may impact the BJP’s electoral prospects.

As per PTI, the saffron party has accused the Congress of not fulfilling its loan waiver poll promise. However, the Gehlot government has argued it has written off loans of farmers taken from cooperative banks, and now the ball lies in the Centre’s court.

The Congress’ campaign is likely to focus on the Old Pension Scheme as it did in Himachal Pradesh where it reintroduced the scheme after coming to power. The move will impact seven lakh government workers and their families in Rajasthan, noted the news agency PTI.

As per the news agency, the Congress has been demanding a ‘national project’ status for the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP), which deals with the irrigation and drinking water needs of the region. The Grand Old Party will target the BJP over the issue.

With inputs from agencies