The Future is Uncertain: What happens to Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner Group? Will Putin emerge stronger?

It was an uncertain weekend in Russia. The Yevgeny Prigozhin-led Wagner Group rebellion put the country and the world on edge. Then about 24 hours later, after claiming to have occupied key military installations in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the plan to march to Moscow was called off. The mercenaries of the militia were asked to return to their field camps in Ukraine.

Prigozhin’s decision to abort the uprising comes after a deal was brokered by Russian president Vladimir Putin’s ally and Belarusian counterpart Aleksander Lukashenko brokered an agreement. The Wagner Group boss is set to leave Russia and head to Belarus and members of the paramilitary forces who joined the “armed rebellion” would not be prosecuted.

The revolt began as retaliation over an alleged attack on a Wagner camp by the Russian defence ministry. Prigozhin insisted that it was not a coup. On Friday, he accused the Russian military of launching a rocket attack that killed Wagner fighters, which triggered his decision to turn on the Kremlin. The mercenaries were 200 kilometres from Moscow when they decided to turn back.

But what happens next? We explain the possibilities.

What’s in store for Prigozhin?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that an agreement was struck with Prigozhin.

“You will ask me what will happen to Prigozhin personally?” Peskov said. “The criminal case will be dropped against him. He himself will go to Belarus.” He added that the Kremlin was unaware of the Wagner Group head’s current whereabouts.

Prigozhin was seen last seen leaving Rostov-on-Don late Saturday, as people cheered on, with crowds gathering around him. In a message recorded shortly before withdrawing his fighters, he ordered his troops to call off the advance to Moscow and return to field camps in eastern Ukraine.

Since Saturday’s decision to stop the rebellion, the Wagner boss, who often uses social media, has been quiet. It is unclear what the future holds for him in Belarus.

Prigozhin’s spokesperson told the Russian media outlet RTVI on Sunday that he “says hi to everyone” and would take questions once he got better cellphone reception.

Also read: Why did Wagner chief abort his rebellion in Russia? What happens next?

However, taking on the Russian president comes with consequences. Critics of the Kremlin being poisoned, imprisoned or meeting suspicious deaths is not uncommon.

“People that cross Vladimir Putin tend to have a bad track record of falling out of windows in Russia. We’ve seen them eliminated with little fanfare and in multiple, very brutal ways,” Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group, told Al Jazeera.

The deal with Belarus does not mean the Wagner boss is safe. According to Clarke, the Russian president will not hesitate from punishing Prigohzin if he thinks that is necessary.

What happens to Wagner fighters?

Under the deal negotiated by Lukashenko, the Kremlin said that members of Prigozhin’s paramilitary forces who joined the “armed rebellion” would not be prosecuted. “We have always respected their heroic deeds at the front,” Peskov added.

“An agreement has been reached that Wagner would return to its bases,” he informed the media, adding that those fighters who had not participated in the mutiny would be allowed to formally join the Russian army.

However, it remained unclear if the Wagner Group would be disbanded. The mercenaries have helped Russia in the war in Ukraine and were responsible for the capture of the key Ukrainian city of Bakhmut last month.

Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told NPR that Putin had created “a bit of a Frankenstein monster for himself” in the Wagner Group, which operates as a de facto fighting force for the Russian state but with more autonomy than the military.

“There’s no easy way for Vladimir Putin to defang or demobilise the Wagner units,” Weiss said. “The challenge is always going to be: will they play ball with the Russian military leadership and act in coordination with them in pursuit of Putin’s military objectives in Ukraine?”

Also read: Is Putin’s grip on Russia weakening? What does Wagner Group’s mutiny reveal?

How does the rebellion impact Putin?

The short-lived mutiny and its fallout are the biggest challenges to the Russian president’s long rule since he came to power in 1999.

At first, Putin called Prigohzin’s move treason, and only a few hours later, the Kremlin revealed that charges against the Wagner leader were dropped. The messages were contradictory and they put a spotlight on Putin’s eroding position.

By letting Prigohzin ago, the Russian strongman appears the weakest he has in decades.

The Wagner rebellion has exposed fresh “cracks” in the strength of his leadership that may take weeks or months to play out, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said on Sunday.

“We’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade. It is too soon to tell exactly where they go, and when they get there. But certainly, we have all sorts of new questions that Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead,” Blinken told NBC’s “Meet the Press” programme.

It does not help that Putin’s current presidential term ends next year.

Konstantin Remchukov, owner and editor-in-chief of the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta told the BBC, “All elite groups will now begin to think about the 2024 presidential election. They will ask themselves whether they should rely on Vladimir Putin, as they have been doing until this military coup.”

The big question remains: Is the beginning of the end of Vladimir Putin? It is too early to say. The Russian strongman has been in power for 23 years and he has mastered the art of survival.

With inputs from agencies

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