Trump wins Iowa: Does this increase his chances of becoming the next US president?

It is the first contest of the US presidential race. And Donald Trump has emerged as the winner. The former US president won the Iowa caucuses, cementing his frontrunner status in the Republican primary field.

Iowa is the first of the state-by-state contests which allow Republican voters to choose their candidate for the White House. The final nominee will take on the Democratic pick, possibly President Joe Biden, in November.

We take a look at what happened in the state and what Iowa’s record says when it comes to picking the president.

What were the results of Iowa?

Donald Trump swept to victory in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, the first vote in the US presidential race.

The former president has led polling for more than a year, but the Iowa contest was seen as the clearest insight yet into whether he can convert his advantage into a stunning White House return.

In the end, major US networks took just half an hour from the opening of polls to project the winner, with Trump securing almost three-quarters of the early vote, reports news agency AFP.

There was a tight contest in the race for second place between Flordia governor Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. DeSantis edged out Haley.

Following a poor performance in Iowa, Indian-American businessman Vivek Ramaswamy announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US presidential race. He finished fourth in Monday’s vote, securing close to 7.7 per cent of the votes. He will now endorse Trump.

What does the Iowa win mean for Trump?

For Trump, whose legal problems have only mounted – he faces several civil and criminal trials in the US – Iowa was a major election test. There was speculation as to whether his support had dampened. But the victory in Iowa suggests that the 77-year-old has succeeded in turning the prosecutions into a rallying cry to galvanise his support.

Trump has not just won Iowa, he has registered a massive win, likely shattering previous records. Trump claimed 50 per cent of the vote the biggest in caucus history. The largest margin of victory for an Iowa Republican caucus had been 12.8 percentage points for Bob Dole in 1988.

Losing presidents have rarely had successful primary campaigns. Trump has pulled off a landslide demonstrating his complete dominance among the Republican voters. CNN called it one of the most astonishing comebacks in American political history.

The win serves as an endorsement for Trump, who left the White House disgraced following the 2021 assault on the US Capitol by his supporters.

Does Iowa predict presidents?

The opening vote in the primary season, the Iowa results are considered crucial for winnowing the field and giving those left standing a springboard for the rest of the race. While Trump now has momentum in the New Hampshire presidential primary to be held on 23 January, history shows that a win in the Iowa caucuses does not guarantee success in the remaining race or even in November.

Winning the first contest has not panned out well for Republican candidates recently.

In the last three Iowa caucuses, the GOP winners failed to get the party’s nomination – Senator Ted Cruz (2016), former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (2012) and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (2008), according to a report in Politico. The last Republican presidential hopeful to win Iowa and become the Republican nominee was then Texas governor George W Bush. This was 24 years ago.

The US modern primary system started in 1972. In the five decades since, there have been 16 times that presidential candidates who won Iowa caucuses have not gone on to win the elections in November and become the commander in chief. There have been eight times that winners were not named their party’s nominees, reports ABC News. This does not include uncontested races.

Only three presidents won the Iowa caucuses when races were contested rather than unopposed – Republican George W Bush in 2000 and Democrats Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. Both Bush and Obama fell back in New Hampshire after winning in Iowa.

Trump lost Iowa in 2016 to Ted Cruz by about three per cent. But it was the former who became the Republican party’s nominee and was elected president. Other Iowa losers, who won the presidential race are Ronald Regan in 1980 and George HW Bush in 1988.

One of the most interesting contests in Iowa was the win in 2008. Republican candidate Mick Huckabee won the caucuses with 34 per cent. He was way ahead of the eventual GOP nominee Senator John McCain who came fourth with 13 per cent. He lost the presidential race to Obama.

In 2020, Trump won both Iowa and New Hampshire but lost the general elections. That year, Democratic candidate Pete Buttigieg won Iowa with 26 per cent. The party’s nominee and winner of the election was Biden, who was fourth in the caucuses.

Experts say that while Iowa is the first in the presidential race, it does not necessarily reflect the mood of the nation.

“I think the general point is that politically, Iowa should not matter. It’s homogeneous, it’s rural and it’s overwhelmingly white. And those who win in Iowa often don’t become president, because Iowa caucuses just don’t reflect the policy preferences and demographic composition of America,” Sean Westwood, a Dartmouth College associate professor of government and director of the university’s Polarization Research Lab told ABC News.

For Trump then, this is an early win but it may not directly translate to winning the general election and becoming president.

With inputs from agencies