Analysts revisit Nvidia stock price targets as US restricts China chip sales

Nvidia shares tumbled in early Wednesday shopping and selling after the sector's leading AI chipmaker turned into hit with new China export restrictions that can maybe potentially impact billions in sales and add a brand new vulnerability to its come-timeframe outlook.

Nvidia (NVDA) said late Tuesday that its will require an export license from the U.S. authorities to sell its H20 AI chip to China-based possibilities. The H20 is the very best-performing of three processors designed by Nvidia to satisfy enhanced export restrictions effect in design by the Biden administration in 2023.

The community said this would book a $5.5 billion payment to its first quarter earnings, that are anticipated on May 28, since the brand new restrictions, whereas reports counsel it had booked spherical $18 billion in sales for the whole of 2025.

China sales accounted for spherical 14% of Nvidia's $39.3 billion in fourth quarter revenues, with more than four-fifths of that tally tied to H20 shipments.

"The (U.S. authorities) indicated that the license requirement addresses the risk that the lined products will almost definitely be historical in, or diverted to, a supercomputer in China," Nvidia said in a Securities and Alternate Price submitting. "On April 14, 2025, the (U.S. authorities) told the Firm that the license requirement will almost definitely be in salvage for the indefinite future."

Nvidia to take $5.5 billion payment

"First quarter results are anticipated to encompass as much as roughly $5.5 billion of charges linked to H20 products for inventory, aquire commitments, and linked reserves," the submitting added.

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri reduced his mark target on Nvidia stock by $20, taking it to $150 per part following the community's SEC submitting final evening, but famed that important AI spending and the ongoing ramp of its Blackwell chips should offset the hit to sales and first quarter margins.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, meanwhile, held his 'outperform' rating and $175 mark target for Nvidia in design following final evening's update, said markets are inclined to form out the "strategic blow" from the effective China blockade by the Trump administration.

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"Nvidia is a key strategic asset for the US and the Trump Administration at some level of this very disturbing length with China ... and the White House goes to make certain its chips salvage no longer support Beijing in the AI Revolution," Ives said.

"The Avenue will take this info with sure anxiousness fearful these are the first pictures fired in the tech battle between the US and China and Beijing/Xi are no longer staunch going to take this info and hotfoot away," he added. "We can proceed to see a necessary backward and forward between the US and China because the market and the economic system is caught in the guts with this tariff battle royale."

Misplaced China revenues limit 2025 gains

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst C.J. Muse, nonetheless, thinks the H20 ban and the $5.5 billion payment will quantity to a "somewhat main hit" to Nvidia's first quarter earnings with the inability of China revenues a "meaningful limiter to upside thru the year."

Alternatively, he sees the increased bull case for Nvidia remaining in design, and kept his 'chubby' rating and the community's designation as a 'high decide' in design.

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"This is but a blip, and the market has been expecting a de-risking of China and now that has came about," said Muse.

"Nvidia is restful on target to compose $4.50+ per part in 2025 with important teach thereafter in 2026 and previous," he added. "There is not any substitute to our observe on Nvidia’s structural positioning because the main enabler of all things AI."

Nvidia shares hold been marked 5.9% decrease in premarket shopping and selling to boom a gap bell mark of $105.61 each, a go that can maybe extend the stock's year-to-date decline to spherical 24%.