Many investors fear that artificial intelligence is a bubble, and these fears aren’t waning, despite reassuring statements from analysts. Oracle stock closed the Thursday trading session 10.84% lower at $198.84, following the release of the earnings report. The hit Oracle was taking also transferred slightly to most of the stocks in the AI group, including Nvidia.

Nvidia closed Thursday's session 1.55% lower at $180.93, or 12.6% lower than its October 29 peak, which had a closing price of $207.04.

Bad news that has spooked investors lately:

• Michael Burry is shorting Nvidia.
• SoftBank Group sold all of its Nvidia shares.
  Source Reuters
• Gemini 3 was trained only on Google’s TPUs.
  Source CNBC

President Trump’s post on December 8, on Truth Social, saying Nvidia can sell H200 AI chips to China, should have boosted the stock, but had very little impact.

Bank of America reiterates Nvidia as its top pick

Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team hosted Nvidia’s VP of Investor Relations and Strategic Finance, Toshiya Hari, in a virtual investor meeting and updated their opinion on the stock afterwards. Analysts said that while Google Gemini 3 is a top LLM today and is trained on the TPU, Nvidia believes it is too early to call out a winner.

Nvidia informed the team that the currently available GPU-based LLMs were all trained on outdated Hopper products and are incomparable to the upcoming LLMs trained on Blackwell GPUs. Blackwell-based models are expected to launch in early 2026, and Nvidia believes it will become clear that they are at least a full generation ahead of the competition.

Related: Bank of America resets Amazon stock forecast after key meeting

The team said Nvidia reiterated that it has both demand and supply visibility into the $500 billion sales outlook for Blackwell/Rubin/Networking for calendar years 2025 and 2026 at a minimum. Analysts said that recent Nvidia partnerships with OpenAI and Anthropic/Microsoft are incremental to the $500 billion, given they are letters of intent and could be a source of upside. Nvidia told the team that it believes it is premature to assess the impact of the Trump Administration’s decision to re-allow the sale of H200 GPUs to China.

Analysts added that once the company obtains a formal license, it will need to determine: actual demand from Chinese customers, how quickly and in what quantities it can build from a supply perspective, and what the Chinese regulators will allow.In a research note shared with TheStreet, Arya reiterated a buy rating and the target price of $275, based on 28 multiple his estimate for price to earnings ratio excluding cash for calendar year 2027, which is within Nvidia’s historical forward year price to earnings range of 25 to 56.

Analysts noted downside risk factors for Nvidia:

• weakness in the consumer-driven gaming market,
• Competition with major public firms,
• Larger than expected impact from restrictions on compute shipments to China
• Lumpy and unpredictable sales in new enterprise, data center, and autos
  markets,
• Potential for decelerating capital returns,
• Enhanced government scrutiny of Nvidia’s dominant market position in AI
  chips.

Possible hurdles for H200 sales to China

Nvidia had to write off $4.5 billion in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, due to export restrictions on its H2O chips to China. According to Nvidia’s Q3 fiscal year 2026 earnings report, following the US government’s granting of licenses in August 2025, which allowed the company to ship certain H20 products to certain China-based customers, the company generated approximately $50 million in H20 revenue under those licenses.

The revenue Nvidia generated from H20 chips of $50 million is insignificant compared to the $4.5 billion write-off from Q1. One of the reasons for poor H20 sales was China's restrictions on its companies using Nvidia chips . China is implementing the restrictions on its companies again, this time for using H200, reported Reuters.

More Nvidia:

• Is Nvidia’s AI boom already priced in? Oppenheimer doesn’t think so
• Morgan Stanley revamps Nvidia’s price target ahead of big Q3
• Investors hope good news from Nvidia gives the rally more life

Another problem for sales of H200 is that China’s Huawei already has a response to Blackwell, albeit with a significantly higher power draw. Huawei’s CloudMatrix AI cluster consists of its Ascend 910C chips, and according to Huawei, it surpasses the performance of Nvidia’s H800 chip in running DeepSeek’s R1 LLM. According to the specs, the CloudMatrix 384 cluster can put out more raw power than Nvidia’s GB200 (Blackwell) NVL72 system, delivering 300 PFLOPs of BF16 compute versus the NVL72’s 180 BF15 PFLOPS, as reported by Tom’s Hardware.

Alibaba and ByteDance are training their newest large language models in Southeast Asian data centres to avoid U.S. export bans on Nvidia chips, according to Financial Times. While both companies employ this tactic to circumvent the export ban and gain access to better chips, it is worth noting that they have expressed a desire to purchase H200 chips, according to Reuters.

China’s GPU black market might be another hurdle weakening H200 demand.

According to the report from The Information, Nvidia’s Blackwell chips were smuggled into China, as reported by Bloomberg. DeepSeek is relying on these banned chips to develop its upcoming AI model. Nvidia said it hasn’t seen any substantiation of the claims and that such smuggling seems far-fetched.

PC hardware reviews YouTube channel Gamers Nexus investigated the GPU black market in China over several months, and its documentary about the topic is available on YouTube.

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