How the 7 bypolls in 6 states is a test for the INDIA bloc before 2024 Lok Sabha elections

What kind of threat could the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc pose to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming 2024 general elections? By-election to seven Assembly seats in six states could give us the answer.

Today, the BJP and the INDIA bloc will face off against each other in a mini-showdown ahead of the 2024 polls. The seats going to poll today are Ghosi in Uttar Pradesh, Dhupguri in West Bengal, Puthuppally in Kerala, Bageshwar in Uttarakhand, Dumri in Jharkhand and Boxanagar and Dhanpur in Tripura. In all seven seats, votes will be counted on 8 September.

Here is an overview of the seven Assembly seats that are going to the polls and we also take a closer look at why these elections matter to the INDIA grouping.

Ghosi, Uttar Pradesh

An election in this constituency was necessitated by the resignation of Dara Singh Chauhan, who had won the seat in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, from the Samajwadi Party (SP) in July. He later jumped to the BJP and has been picked by the party to contest the bypoll.

Chauhan has been pitted by SP’s Sudhakar Singh, who has received support from INDIA bloc constituents – the Congress, Communist Party of India(Marxist), Communist Party of India, Rashtriya Lok Dal, Aam Aadmi Party, CPI(ML)-Liberation and Suheldev Swabhiman Party.

The bypoll will have no bearing on the BJP government, which enjoys a comfortable majority in the 403-member state assembly. However, its outcome is important as it could be an indicator of what is in store for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Uttar Pradesh sends 80 MPs to the 543-member Lok Sabha.

Dhupguri, West Bengal

The Dhupguri election will see a triangular contest between the TMC, CPI(M) – both part of the INDIA bloc – and the BJP. The bypoll comes after the death of BJP’s Bishnu Pada Ray, who had secured the seat in 2021 by over 4,300 votes.

The TMC has fielded Nirmal Chandra Roy, a professor at the local girls’ college, while the BJP has given the ticket to Tapasi Roy, whose CRPF jawan husband was killed in a terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. The CPI(M), on the other hand, has fielded famous folk artist Iswar Chandra Roy. Roy used to be a teacher in a madrasa earlier.

The win in this seat is important to all contesting parties. For the BJP, it would arrest the string of defeats that it has seen in the state. In all seven bypolls held since the 2021 Assembly elections — Bhowanipore, Dinhata, Khardah, Santipur, Gosaba, Ballygunge and Sagardighi — the BJP has lost and even pushed to the third spot in two cases.

For the TMC, it’s a matter of pride. Mamata Banerjee wants to prove to the BJP that she is the major player in the state.

Puthuppally, Kerala

Congress veteran Oommen Chandy’s demise prompted the election on Puthuppally seat in the southern state of Kerala. The constituency has been a Congress bastion with the former chief minister winning it since 1970.
And despite the Left being a part of the INDIA bloc, the Congress and the Left have decided to pit opposing candidates for Puthuppally. The Congress has fielded Chandy’s 37-year-old son Chandy Oommen, hoping to bank on the late MLA’s popularity.

On the other side, the Left has fielded Jack C Thomas in the hopes that he can further cut into the Congress’s vote share. The BJP has also fielded Kottayam district unit president Ligin Lal to contest in only his second ever poll.

However, this by-election will be a direct contest between the Congress and the Left.

Bageshwar, Uttarakhand

The Bageshwar bypoll has been necessitated owing to the death of sitting BJP MLA Chandan Ram Dass, a four-time MLA and minister with the portfolios of Social Welfare, Minority Welfare, Road Transport, and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises.

The bypoll is significant as its result will be a reflection of the mood of the voters in the state ahead of the 2024 elections. The bypoll result is also being touted as a progress report of the Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami-led BJP government, which has completed over a year of its second term after registering a massive win in the 2022 Uttarakhand Assembly elections.

The BJP has fielded Das’ widow Parvati in the bypoll and is hoping to capitalise on sympathy votes to retain the seat. There are four other candidates in the fray – Congress’ Basant Kumar, Samajwadi Party’s Bhagvati Prasad, Uttarakhand Kranti Dal’s Arjun Dev and Uttarakhand Parivartan Party’s Bhagwat Kohli.

However, the direct contest is likely to be between the BJP and the Congress.

Dumri, Jharkhand

The Dumri bypoll – a result of the death of state Cabinet minister Jagannath Mahto – will see a contest between Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)’s Bebi Devi, wife of the late minister, and Yashoda Devi from the National Democratic Alliance.

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) has also fielded Md Abdul Mobin Rizvi.

The NDA has campaigned heavily in this seat, with visits from Union ministers Arjun Munda and Annapurna Devi, and former chief ministers Babulal Marandi and Raghubar Das, in an attempt to wrest the constituency from the JMM.

Boxanagar and Dhanpur, Tripura

The northeastern state of Tripura will see two bypolls, in Dhanpur and Boxanagar, owing to a death and a resignation.

Dhanpur is holding a bypoll since Union minister Pratima Bhoumik resigned as an MLA to retain her Lok Sabha seat. It will witness a contest between BJP’s Bindu Debnath and CPI(M)’s Koushik Chandra.

In Boxanagar, the BJP has nominated Taffajal Hussain, who earlier lost to CPI(M) in the recently concluded Assembly elections. The Left party has fielded Mizan Hussain, the son of Samson Haque, who represented the constituency until his death in July.

Notably, the recently founded tribal party Tipra Motha, led by erstwhile Tripuri royal Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma, is not fielding a candidate and officially has not backed either the CPI(M) or the BJP.

Why these bypolls matter

The results for these bypolls, which will be announced on 8 September, is being seen by many as a litmus test for the INDIA bloc and how they may fare in the 2024 general elections. It is also a chance for the Opposition grouping to show the people that despite their many differences, they are able to be one unit to defeat the Narendra Modi-juggernaut.

The results even are even more important now after the recent Udhayanidhi Stalin’s controversy over his remarks of removal of Sanatana Dharma. The DMK dynast’s remarks over the weekend have even divided the alliance with Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress saying that no one should make comments that hurt the sentiments of people.”

“I respect Stalin but every religion has separate sentiments. India is about ‘Unity in Diversity’ which is our origin. We should not be involved in any matter which might hurt a section of people,” West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee told PTI.

With inputs from agencies