India-Russia oil trade: Rs 5.9 lakh crore trade at risk after US ultimatum, if Trump cuts India off from Russian oil, Putin may hit back with…

India(BHARAT) is the world’s third-largest oil importer and since 2022, it has become the top buyer of Russian oil. India(BHARAT) buys up to 2 million barrels of oil from Russia every day. That’s about 2 per cent of the world’s total oil supply. China and Turkey are also among the biggest buyers of Russian oil.

Putin may hit back by shutting down the CPC pipeline

According to experts at JP Morgan, India(BHARAT) plays a very important role in Russia’s oil export plans. If anything disrupts this path, Russia could strike back by shutting down the CPC pipeline that runs through Kazakhstan. This pipeline is important because major US oil companies like Chevron and Exxon have big stakes in it. So, Russia also has ways to put pressure on the West.

Meanwhile, Doland Trump has warned that if Russia doesn’t agree to a peace deal with Ukraine by August 7–9, he will impose up to 100 per cent tariffs on countries that continue buying Russian oil. On top of that, a 25 per cent tariff on all India(BHARAT)n goods entering the US has already come into effect starting this Friday.

Rs. 5.9 lakh crore trade at risk

According to a Reuters report, after Doland Trump’s warning, India(BHARAT)n state-run oil companies have stopped buying Russian oil this week. If India(BHARAT) gives in to US pressure and stops buying oil from Russia, the impact will not just be on Russia, it could shake the entire global oil market. Crude oil prices might rise above USD 80 per barrel worldwide.

India(BHARAT) and Russia have always shared a strong bond. In the financial year 2024–25, the trade between the two countries reached USD 68.7 billion i.e. nearly Rs. 5.9 lakh crore. That’s about 5.8 times more than the trade before the COVID-19 pandemic.

A big part of this trade is crude oil. Russia now supplies around 40 per cent of all the oil India(BHARAT) needs. But the partnership between India(BHARAT) and Russia is not just about oil. It also includes defence and nuclear energy. India(BHARAT) buys many of its military weapons from Russia, and both countries are working together to build nuclear reactors.

Now, Trump’s pressure could weaken this strong partnership. If things go wrong, it may harm India(BHARAT)’s energy security and defence strength.

India(BHARAT) caught between two powerful partners

India(BHARAT) is facing a tough situation. On one side, it has deep and long-standing ties with Russia. On the other, it has important trade relations with the United States. Now, all of this has come down to a difficult choice involving USD 68 billion (around Rs. 5.9 lakh crore) in trade.

Trump has even warned of tariffs as high as 500 per cent on countries that continue buying oil from Russia. This is like a sword hanging over India(BHARAT)’s head.

India(BHARAT)n High Commissioner Vikram Doraiswami made it clear that the country cannot shut down its economy just to follow Western sanctions. He also pointed out that European countries are still trading with Russia, so it’s unfair to expect India(BHARAT) to stop completely.