India vs Australia: How the Border-Gavaskar Trophy could affect the World Test Championship

India face their biggest challenge yet in the ongoing cycle of the ICC World Test Championship (WTC), when they host Australia for a four-match Test series, starting in Nagpur on 9 February.

With the WTC 2021-23 finalists yet to be ascertained, there is a lot at stake in the upcoming series, which means it can be anybody’s game as far as the top three are concerned.

The last series in the current WTC cycle saw Australia beat South Africa 2-0 at home in January this year, and there are three more series remaining in order to determine the two finalists: India vs Australia (four Tests), New Zealand vs Sri Lanka (two) and South Africa vs West Indies (two).

The most important thing going into the all-important series against the Aussies is that India cannot afford a heavy series defeat. A 0-4 series defeat, for example, would see India’s WTC win percentage slip to 45.4 from the current 58.93.

To put into context, Australia leads the WTC standings with a win percentage of 75.56, followed by India (58.93), Sri Lanka (53.33) and South Africa (48.72).

How will the India vs Australia series affect WTC points table?

Rohit Sharma-led India find themselves in a tricky position as far as the World Test Championship standings are concerned. Placed second with a win percentage of 58.93, behind India are Sri Lanka and South Africa, with the Lankans still in contention for the final.

Leaders Australia have a healthy win percentage, and look set to qualify for the final, irrespective of the series result against India.

Should the Aussies clean sweep India (4-0) to retain the Border-Gavaskar trophy, they would finish with a win percentage of 80.07, and qualify for the final in some style.

India, meanwhile, clawed back to second spot with a resounding 2-0 away series win in Bangladesh, while South Africa endured a slip up against the Aussies to hinder their chances of qualification.

A 3-1, 3-0 or a 4-0 series win over Australia would see India finish the current WTC cycle with a win percentage of over 60, and set up a final clash against Australia. This would mean Sri Lanka will not be able to make the final even if they beat New Zealand 2-0, since the Lankans will only have a win percentage of 61.11.

A 2-2 draw for India against Australia, though, could put Sri Lanka in the final, should they manage a clean sweep against the Kiwis.

South Africa have a tough road ahead in their contention for the final. Even if the Proteas beat West Indies 2-0, all they can finish is with a win percentage of 55.55, which won’t be enough should India win at least two of the four Tests against Australia.

While India remain favourites to reach the final along with Australia, a slip-up from Rohit Sharma and Co could mean that they would have to depend on the outcome of the series between New Zealand and Sri Lanka.

All in all, the league stage of the World Test Championship looks set for a thrilling end, with a lot at stake for the current top three teams over the next two months.

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