India’s careful dance with Balochistan’s independence hope

The latest attraction by exiled Baloch leaders for India’s moral, diplomatic, and strategic support in their decades-prolonged war for independence has reignited a fancy debate. Their plea, drawing parallels with India’s role in Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971, comes at a time when India-Pakistan tensions are high, particularly after India’s Operation Sindoor, which focused fright camps and navy sites in Pakistan. Whereas the Baloch purpose evokes sympathy, India must formula this yell with utmost warning, balancing its concepts with strategic realities.

The Baloch independence motion is now not new. Since Pakistan annexed the princely yell of Kalat in 1948, the distance has seen five fundamental uprisings, each and every marked by growing violence but lacking unity. This day, the motion is fragmented, led by tribal leaders, secretive militant groups, and exiled activists indulge in Brahumdagh Bugti and Mehran Marri. Operating from Europe and North The USA, these leaders maintain struggled to attain world traction. Pakistan’s relentless crackdowns—by raids, abductions, and extrajudicial killings—maintain extra weakened the motion on the bottom.

The Baloch leaders’ outreach to India, amplified after Operation Sindoor, is much less a set of strength and more a desperate bid for world recognition. They reward India’s company stand against Pakistan and speed New Delhi to relieve their fight, citing the Bangladesh precedent. On the other hand, as consultants level out, the 2 cases are vastly assorted. “Bangladesh faced a humanitarian disaster with 10 million refugees flooding into India, growing a moral and strategic crucial for intervention,” notes Amitabh Tiwari, Managing Partner at Ascendia Solutions, in a Moneycontrol document. Balochistan, in distinction, shares no border with India, has a smaller inhabitants, and lacks a unified leadership or mass exodus to clarify an identical involvement.

Supporting Baloch separatists may backfire diplomatically. Pakistan would raise the different to equate Balochistan with Kashmir, muddying India’s jam that Kashmir is an inner matter. This may occasionally weaken India’s world standing, especially after the latest Pahalgam fright assault, which exposed the world’s inconsistent support for India’s fight against terrorism. Moreover, backing the Baloch purpose dangers straining ties with Iran, a key partner in initiatives indulge in the Chabahar port. Iran, which has its possess restive Baloch inhabitants, has warned against international meddling.

Then there’s China, Pakistan’s shut ally. Balochistan is central to China’s Belt and Boulevard Initiative, particularly the China-Pakistan Financial Corridor (CPEC). Any Indian support for Baloch separatists is at likelihood of be seen as an fast yell to Beijing’s investments in Gwadar, doubtlessly deepening China-Pakistan navy ties. This would complicate India’s strategic calculus in an already demanding space.

On the bottom, the Baloch motion lacks the harmony wished for a sustained insurrection. Groups indulge in the Baloch Liberation Navy and Baloch Liberation Entrance raise out sporadic attacks, but they lack gigantic local support or coordination. Most requires independence strategy from foreign, amplified by social media and international media in decide to a sturdy domestic inappropriate. India may be unwise to pin its hopes on a motion that survives largely on external sympathy.

But, India can now not ignore Pakistan’s human rights abuses in Balochistan. The Pakistani navy’s brutal response to Operation Sindoor—marked by a surge in abductions and killings, as reported by human rights groups—has simplest deepened Baloch alienation. Dr. Shalini Chawla, a Well-liked Fellow on the Centre for Air Vitality Be taught, educated Moneycontrol that Balochistan will remain a “fundamental headache” for Pakistan’s navy, with the motion at likelihood of attain momentum. India has

India has rightly known as out Pakistan’s double standards, raising Balochistan’s plight at world boards to repeat Pakistan’s hypocrisy on Kashmir. Nonetheless highlighting human rights abuses is now not the same as endorsing separatism. Supporting Balochistan’s independence may space a harmful precedent in a space already fraught with border disputes.

India’s latest formula—voicing yell without committing to the Baloch purpose—is strategically sound. By declaring ambiguity, New Delhi retains Pakistan on edge while warding off the pitfalls of originate support. Backing a fragmented motion may hand Pakistan a propaganda victory, allowing it to deflect from its failures, indulge in those exposed by Operation Sindoor, and refocus world consideration on India’s alleged interference.

The Baloch war deserves empathy, but India must prioritize its prolonged-length of time interests. Diplomacy, now not adventurism, is the strategy ahead. New Delhi should proceed exposing Pakistan’s missteps in Balochistan while strengthening its possess regional partnerships. As Tiwari aptly places it, “Global politics doesn’t work on emotion on my own.” India’s restraint is now not weakness—it’s knowledge.

(Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Parts India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. Contact: [email protected] )