Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023: Why the southern state is a must-win for Congress

Karnataka cast its votes today (10 May) to elect the next government. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seeks to retain power, the Congress is confident of unseating the ruling saffron party. Its state unit president DK Shivakumar, also a chief ministerial candidate, has earlier said that the Grand Old party will bag at least “141 seats” in the 224-member Assembly and the BJP will be reduced to “less than 60” constituencies.

Exit poll predictions do not hand a full majority to Congress, which can make it difficult for the party to form a government. Let’s take a look at why winning Karnataka is crucial for Congress.

Will Congress defeat BJP?

Five Exit polls predict a hung Assembly in Karnataka, indicating that the JD(S) can play the kingmaker. However, some say it could be a neck-and-neck contest between the BJP and the Congress with a slight edge to the latter. 

As per a News18 survey, Congress is likely to secure between 99-109 seats, while the BJP could end up with 88-98 seats. The JD(S) is projected to bag 21-26 seats.

Notably, Opinion polls showed that the voters are in the mood for a change this time.

As per the projections by India TV-CNX survey, Congress could bag 105 seats, whereas, the BJP is likely to be restricted to 85 seats. The Janata Dal Secular (S) is predicted to secure 32 seats and others can bag two seats.

In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, the BJP was the largest party with 104 seats.

Congress won 80 seats and 38 seats went to the JD(S) in 2018.

Political parties require at least 113 seats to form the government in Karnataka.

Another Opinion poll released by ABP News and CVoter last week showed that Congress could win between 110 and 122 seats. The BJP may lose constituencies and bag anywhere between 73 and 85 seats, while the JD(S) could get 21-29 seats.

According to the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress is expected to perform better in five of the state’s six major regions, including Greater Bengaluru and Old Mysuru. The BJP is likely to get more support in coastal regions of Karnataka.

A pre-poll survey conducted by Eedina, a Kannada outlet, gave a clear majority to Congress with 134-140 seats. The BJP’s tally could fall to 57-65 seats.

However, the Zee News-Matrize opinion poll predicted that the BJP would retain the state, even as Congress increases its seats.

ALSO READ: Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023: Watch out for these big names in the fray

Why does Congress need to win Karnataka?

It is a high-stake battle for all the parties in Karnataka as the Assembly elections come months ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha polls.

A victory in Karnataka could herald an electoral comeback for Congress, which has seen a series of humiliating drubbings since 2014.

The party has not won a single major state since gaining power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh at the end of 2018. However, the Congress government in MP collapsed in around a year following defections of MLAs to the BJP.

The Grand Old Party lost Punjab last year to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which registered a landslide victory.

The only state it won was Himachal Pradesh in the 2022 Assembly elections. In the 182-member Gujarat Assembly, the party secured its lowest-ever seats at 17.

Congress also faced setbacks in Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland in the Assembly elections held earlier this year.

Follow Karnataka Election 2023 LIVE updates here.

Now, a win in Karnataka could not only be a “morale booster” for the Grand Old Party but also offer it more leverage to project itself as the key player to lead the Opposition alliance against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to The Hindu.

The victory will be sweeter for the Congress as it would ouster the BJP from power in the only southern state it rules.

In view of the Assembly elections slated later this year in key states such as Telangana, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, Congress needs to be triumphant in Karnataka.

Moreover, Karnataka is Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s home state and a “resounding victory” here will be more than a “symbolic milestone in the party’s quest for 2024”, as per Indian Express.

As ThePrint report mentioned that the Congress would need a major swing of more than 5 per cent in its favour to secure over 130 seats. Anything less of an outright majority could leave the Grand Old Party candidates susceptible to horse-trading by the BJP, the report added.

With parties such as AAP, Trinamool Congress and Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) implying against Congress (read: Rahul Gandhi) leading an anti-BJP front in the next year’s general elections, wresting Karnataka from the BJP will give a leg up to Grand Old Party. “A win in Karnataka will boost the Congress’s chances of heading such a front, while a loss will almost end any talk of a Congress-led anti-BJP group of parties. There are already other opposition parties… looking to form their own fronts to take on the BJP in 2024,” senior journalist BS Arun wrote for The Wire.

According to Arun, losing Karnataka would be “particularly hurtful” for the Congress as it is a “powerful force” there and has strong local leaders, unlike many other states.

Wait till 13 May to know if Karnataka, which has voted out the incumbent for decades, has done the same this time or if the BJP has been successful in changing the tradition.

With inputs from agencies

Read all the Latest News, Trending News, Cricket News, Bollywood News, India News and Entertainment News here. Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.