US job market hits a new low in October

Thanks to the record six-week federal government shutdown, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the economists it relies on were operating in the dark.

But now that the government has been reopened, the delayed September report will be published on Thursday, Nov. 20.

Largest private U.S. employers:

• Walmart: 1.6 million employees
• Amazon: 1.1 million employees
• UPS: 443,000 employees
• Target: 427,346 employees
• Home Depot: 418,000 employees
  Source: Ringover

The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the August report in early September. The data showed a slight uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, as employers added just 22,000 new jobs.

The September numbers were initially scheduled to be published on October 3, but the government shutdown delayed their release.

White House Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has noted that the upcoming jobs report won't include full unemployment data. As Bloomberg reported, he said: "We will never know what the unemployment rate was in October."

The Fed relies on government data to inform its decisions about interest rates, but even with incomplete data, some Fed governors can discern trends.

"The official sources delayed by the U.S. government shutdown are important but by no means the only source of information for Fed policymakers about the economy," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said.

"Often, different sources of data are consistent with each other, but at critical times they can conflict. When that happens, it takes our skills as economists to reconcile this conflict."

Some of that soft data suggests a weakening labor market.

Companies issued nearly 40,000 WARN notices in October, reaching record levels

The federal Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification program mandates that companies with 100 or more employees provide at least 60 days’ advance written notice of a plant closing or mass layoff affecting 50 or more workers.

The fourth quarter used to be a time when employers refrained from layoffs, but that courtesy seems to be a vestige of the past.

Related: U.S. worker anxiety expected to rise in the 'forever layoffs' era

"Over the last decade, companies have shied away from announcing layoffs in the fourth quarter, so it’s surprising to see so many in October. With the onset of social media and the ability for workers to share their negative experiences with their employers, the trend of announcing layoffs before the holidays fell away, a practice that seemed particularly cruel," Andy Challenger, chief revenue officer of Challenger, Gray, & Christmas, recently said.

U.S. employers issued WARN notices for 39,006 Americans in October, according to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

The Fed has tracked WARN notices since 2008, and the number has only ever been higher in 2008, 2009, 2020, and May 2025.

Major employers have been announcing massive layoffs

Amazon, UPS, and Target, three of the largest employers in the country, have already announced plans to lay off tens of thousands of workers in the coming weeks.

Major layoffs in the past month

• Target revealed plans in late October to eliminate 1,800 corporate jobs, marking its second-largest corporate downsizing ever.
• Amazonannounced another round of layoffs just before the holidays. The cuts affected 14,000 corporate employees across multiple departments, aiming to reduce bureaucracy by “removing layers and shifting resources” to better serve its investments and customers. 
• UPS has cut about 48,000 jobs so far this year, including 34,000 positions through its Network Reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined program.

Although numerous other layoffs, especially in the tech industry, have been confirmed, it sometimes takes weeks or even months for them to actually take effect.

Related: Layoffs commence at two major tech giants

Companies such as Amazon, Target, Salesforce, and Oracle aren’t alone when it comes to reducing headcount ahead of the holidays.

General Motors is cutting hundreds of jobs at its Georgia IT center. And Molson Coors eliminated 400 salaried jobs across its Americas business, representing about 9% of its white-collar workforce.

According to tech market intelligence firm UnearthInsight, as many as 500,000 white-collar software workers could be laid off over the next two to three years, with approximately 70% of those layoffs affecting workers with four to 12 years of experience.

Weak job market is negatively affecting consumer confidence

With numerous high-profile companies enacting layoffs, consumers are understandably anxious about the economy.

Consumer sentiment fell in September for the second consecutive month, partly due to worries about job security.

“After months of a frozen job market with little hiring outside of healthcare, people now see more industries turning to layoffs,” Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long told CFO Dive.

2025 layoffs quick facts:

• Government: 300,000 job losses forecasted for the year
• Tech: 160,000 jobs lost
• Retail: 80,487 jobs lost
• Services: 53,438 jobs lost
• Warehousing: 38,943 jobs lost
• Total layoffs in 2025 could exceed 1 million for the first time since 2020.

While consumers are still spending, “they are on edge and will be ready to shut their wallets if layoffs pick up this fall and winter,” Long added.

Public-sector layoffs account for the largest share, thanks to the Trump administration’s soft war on the government. By June of last year, the federal government had laid off just 37,000 workers. Through June 2025, that number approached 300,000.

But tech layoffs have been the second most prominent form of downsizing this year.

As of October 23, 2025, there have been 575 layoffs at tech companies, affecting nearly 160,000 people. That translates to 540 tech-sector employees being let go every day.

Related: Shocking jobs data resets recession bets