Apple’s ‘best year yet’ sparks new challenge with top rival

Apple had a record-breaking year. Now its remarkable story just got a new plotline that goes well beyond profit milestones, Services momentum, or the unexpected softness in iPhone Air sales.

The same upgrade wave that helped Apple deliver its strongest fiscal year ever is now powerful enough to push the company past Samsung Electronics in global smartphone shipments in 2025, ending Samsung’s 14-year reign at the top of the industry, according to Counterpoint Research.

It’s a feat Apple hasn’t pulled off since 2011. Counterpoint says this isn’t a one-year anomaly, either. The firm forecasts Apple holding the No. 1 spot all the way through 2029.

10 key milestones for Apple and Samsung

• 2007: Apple launches the first iPhone, redefining the smartphone market.
• 2010: Samsung debuts the Galaxy S, beginning the flagship rivalry with Apple.
• 2011: Samsung surpasses Apple in annual smartphone shipments, starting a 14-year run at No. 1.
• 2014: Apple releases the iPhone 6/6 Plus, triggering one of its biggest upgrade cycles ever.
• 2017: Apple introduces iPhone X and the $999 premium tier; Apple’s profit dominance accelerates.
• 2019: Samsung launches the Galaxy Fold.
• 2020: Apple launches the 5G iPhone 12, which sets off another massive replacement cycle.
• 2023: Samsung strengthens foldable dominance as Apple faces renewed pressure in China.
• 2024: Apple reports record $112B in net income even as iPhone Air demand falters.
• 2025: Counterpoint forecasts Apple will overtake Samsung in global shipments and stay in the pole position through 2029.
  Sources: TheStreet and Samsung

Apple takes top place for first time in more than a decade

“Counterpoint forecasts that the brand’s shipments will reach a global share of 19.4% in 2025, making Apple the world’s No. 1 smartphone OEM for the first time since 2011,” the firm said. “Samsung… will relinquish the top spot it has held for more than a decade.”

Apple edged out Samsung’s forecasted 18.7%. The research firm pegs iPhone shipments to grow 10% next year, compared with 4.6% growth for Samsung.

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That difference widens a trend line that’s been creeping in Apple’s favor for years, even as Samsung maintained a volume advantage with a sprawling lineup that offered everything from ultra-budget to ultra-premium devices.

For Apple, which already commands the overwhelming majority of smartphone profits, becoming the top shipper is something of a strategic turning point — a sign that its tightly integrated hardware ecosystem can beat scale at its own game.

Apple closed FY 2025 with record revenue

Apple indicated in its October 30, 2025, earnings call that it closed its fiscal year with $112 billion in net income, its highest ever. It also guided for 10% to 12% revenue growth in the current quarter, as margins remain near historic highs.

Yet Apple also revealed layoffs, a rarity for the company, and admitted that the ultra-thin iPhone Air underperformed internal expectations, with production reportedly trimmed after demand landed well below Apple’s most optimistic models.

What looked like a possible weak spot now appears less like a structural concern and more like a product-mix issue — one that’s being completely eclipsed by the strength of the broader iPhone 17 cycle.

iPhone 17 is on fire

Counterpoint tracked double-digit growth for the iPhone 17 across both the U.S. and China during October, with China in particular showing stronger-than-expected early demand. Analysts say this is the strongest start to an iPhone cycle since before the Covid pandemic.

“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point, Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said.

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"Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters,” Yang said.

Timing is also an accelerant.

Combined, these forces create precisely the demand surge Apple needed to leapfrog Samsung.

How emerging markets could affect the Apple iPhone 17e

Counterpoint’s multiyear forecast hinges on more than the 2025 cycle. The firm expects Apple to extend its lead through the decade in part because of the upcoming iPhone 17e, slated for the first half of 2026.

The “e” model, positioned in the lower-premium tier, gives Apple a more price-accessible device for emerging markets — markets that are expected to grow faster than the global smartphone market as a whole.

Apple has made repeated, if sometimes halting, attempts to broaden its audience in India(BHARAT) (as The India(BHARAT)n Express indicates), Southeast Asia (as reported by Apple World Today), and parts of Latin America (according to Aztec Reports).

A device that undercuts the flagship while retaining the core iOS experience could be the missing piece.

Apple AI delays haven’t affected momentum yet

The delayed overhaul of Siri and Apple’s slower generative AI rollout don’t appear to be hurting sales.

Counterpoint says the AI timeline — with deeper Siri upgrades and more Apple Intelligence features scheduled for 2026 — is an upside catalyst rather than a drag. Apple is also reportedly moving closer to bringing its Apple Intelligence suite to China, a step that could meaningfully boost competitiveness against local rivals.

For now, the ecosystem effect is doing the heavy lifting: Customers who switched to iPhone in the last five years are proving exceptionally sticky, and Apple’s services engine continues to deepen that lock-in.

Apple earns more profits while Samsung ships more units

For more than a decade, the smartphone industry has been defined by an odd split. Apple captured the profit crown, while Samsung sat on the shipment throne.

Counterpoint now expects 2025 to be the year those two lines converge — with Apple leading both.

Following the report, Apple shares were up about 0.9% in midday trading on Nov. 26, the day before Thanksgiving, according to Yahoo Finance. Investors seemed to be digesting the possibility that the iPhone story, far from maturing, may be entering a new phase.

Apple may have just had its best year ever. But if Counterpoint is right, the peak is the beginning of Apple’s most dominant stretch yet.

Apple vs. Samsung: Show us the money

• Apple (fiscal 2024): Total revenue reached ~$391 billion.
  Source: Yahoo Finance
• Apple (fiscal 2024): Net profit margin exceeded ~24%, reflecting strong high-margin business across devices and services.
  Source: Yahoo Finance
• Samsung Electronics (2023): Consolidated revenue was ~ $220-225 billion and operating profit around $4.9 billion — showing Samsung remains a large, diversified hardware/semiconductor giant.
  Source: Samsung earnings report
• Samsung Electronics (2024): Full-year consolidated revenue totaled $219 billion, with operating profit of KRW 32.7 trillion.
  Source: Samsung earnings report
• Apple (2025 Q3): Total company revenue reportedly reached $102.5 billion, reflecting ongoing strength in iPhone, services, and other segments.
  Source: Apple

Related: Apple’s best year yet comes with a puzzling weak spot