'Zootopia 2' sees instant box-office success, but there's a secret

• "Zootopia 2" breaks China’s single-day U.S. film opening record, fueling massive international projections.
• Disney's hit could join "Ne Zha 2," the Chinese-produced 2025 box-office leader, as a billion-dollar international earner.
• "Zootopia 2" will compete with NBCU's "Wicked: For Good" at the domestic and international box offices, setting the stage for Disney's "Avatar: Fire and Ash."

When in doubt, press the "lovable band of anthropomorphic animals with a heartfelt message" button. The international box-office opening for Disney's (DIS) "Zootopia 2" indicates that it's on track to become Disney's second billion-dollar hit of the year (no other studio has one) — and it hasn't even hit the weekend yet.

The smash success is also an "I told you so" from Disney CEO Bob Iger, who believes Disney's holiday slate will rocket it ahead of other film studios as it begins Q1 and heads into 2026, according to his message on Disney's Q4 Earnings Call.

But Disney fans and investors alike will be interested in the key indicators from the film's first two days that explain why it may pass, and eventually outlast, NBCUniversal's (CMCSA) (UVV) shock success "Wicked: For Good."

The bellwether that has even me (a noted Disney skeptic) believing that the total gross of "Zootopia 2" will cross that billion-dollar threshold? China, China, China.

China loves Disney and Zootopia, as evidenced by "Zootopia 2" having the largest-ever single-day opening for a U.S. film in China at $34 million, per Variety's reporting. Surprise, surprise, it hasn't stopped there. I break down the record-setting pre-weekend numbers in detail below.

No one saw China's "Zootopia 2" mania coming

Film journalists, myself included, are (nearly) at a loss for words to describe Zootopia's box-office pace.

"Aiding the animated sequel in its quest to destroy records is China, a country that has been visibly cold on Hollywood movies in the last five years," Rahul Malholtra writes for Collider.

"As things stand, however, 'Zootopia 2' has a chance of beating 'Avengers: Endgame' in the Middle Kingdom, which isn't something that anybody could've seen coming. The film has already passed the $100 million mark at the worldwide box office, before entering its first weekend of release, when revenue is expected to skyrocket even further."

"Zootopia 2" China box-office numbers

Did you know there is a Zootopia Land at the Disneyland in Shanghai? I didn't, until I started researching this piece, but it opened on Dec. 20, 2023, according to Disney. That should clue you into how seriously China takes its 'topia.

To that end, "Zootopia 2" has hauled in $74 million at the international box office so far over its first two, pre-weekend days — $54 million of that has been from China, Variety reports.

Combine that with the $59.2 million domestic two-weekday opening, and "Zootopia 2" has already passed the $100-million-dollar worldwide box-office mark, per Collider.

Related: 'Wicked: For Good' box office shocks Disney, critics

Ok, now let's extrapolate that through the weekend. For its first five days, Variety's box office experts predict "Zootopia 2" will rake in $135-145 million internationally and $140-150 million domestically.

I'm no mathematician, but that figures to a conservative estimate of $275 million worldwide box office, come Monday, Dec. 1.

According to CNBC, that's in the same range as its rival (and fellow sequel), "Wicked: For Good," which enjoyed an unexpectedly triumphant opening last weekend, silencing critics.

"Zootopia 2," "Ne Zha 2": billion-dollar international box-office films

In terms of domestic box-office, "Zootopia 2" might end up just behind "Wicked: For Good." But if "Zootopia" is able to earn a billion dollars internationally (leaving the good and bad witches in the dust in worldwide gross along the way), that's a lesson for Hollywood to remember going forward.

Numbers like this week's international returns — and China's greater embrace of the Zootopia brand over Wicked's Oz-verse — are why Hollywood sharps (and I) think "Zootopia 2" has what it takes to rake in a billion internationally.

If it does, it would make box-office, and frankly, cultural, film history. Jeremy Fuster of TheWrap sums it up well.

A few years back, "Moana 2" was predicted to be the pioneering film that would open up the Chinese market. Hollywood took stock of its characteristics: It was animated, it was existing IP, and it had broad cultural appeal (some would argue it was Disney, with its massive global brand recognition). Nonetheless, Moana was supposed to pave the way.

Then the Covid pandemic hit.

Now, with domestic box offices teetering, international returns are more important than ever. And, fascinatingly, one film (that you may not have even heard of) is proving that international box office gross may not join domestic box for its slow, painful death.

"Ne Zha 2," a Chinese-produced hit that earned around $1.8 billion in China, is the current box-office leader for 2025 and (thus far) the only $1 billion-plus earner internationally.

2025 Box Office Top 10

Another fun (and mind-blowing) fact: That return makes "Ne Zha 2" the highest-grossing animated film of all time, passing the previous recordholder "Inside Out 2," according to Screen Rant.

"Zootopia 2" hopes to join it on the 2025 international box office podium. Doing so would pave the way for "Avatar: Fire and Ash." The third installment in James Cameron's always-makes-a-billion saga is coming this Christmas, Box Office Mojo notes.

Emboldened by the fact that the previous films have enjoyed positive international receptions, "Avatar" is banking on "Zootopia" doing what "Moana 2" was meant to: lead it to international box-office shangri-la (or the Pandoran equivalent).

"Zootopia" vs. "Wicked" box office

"Wicked: For Good" might win the battle but not the war. The Wizard-of-Oz-based, Broadway musical-inspired sequel/second half to last year's megahit (welcome to IP in 2025) cast its spell on audiences last weekend and through this holiday week, but it might not have the juice to outlast "Zootopia 2" as it surges into this weekend and beyond.

Last weekend, "Wicked" disproved my expectations and those of a fair few film critics, outperforming its first installment and pulling in $150 million domestically.

“The U.S and Canada total... $150 million, one of the biggest domestic openings of the year," the Wall Street Journal wrote. "Last year, the first ‘Wicked’ opened to $112.5 million domestically on the same pre-Thanksgiving weekend.”

That momentum hasn't stopped. "The Thanksgiving holiday frame is one of the most important moviegoing periods of the year and is off to a running start with the overperforming ‘Wicked: For Good’ powering an impressive five days of box office revenue for movie theaters in the $300 million range,” Paul Dergarabedian, head of marketplace trends at Comscore, told CNBC.

So, 'Wicked' has done everything it could to get a lead. Nonetheless, 'Zootopia's' formula might just be better.

"‘Zootopia 2’ has a perfect release date and built-in brand recognition and a revenue-enhancing PG rating, so that’s a huge plus," Dergarabedian continued.

Last thing worth noting: The Jared Bush (CCO of Disney Animation) and Byron Howard co-directed "Zootopia 2" is getting a much warmer critical reception than "Wicked: For Good."

"The sequel to the Oscar-winning animated movie stands at 93% certified fresh with critics on Rotten Tomatoes, a few notches below the 98% of the 2016 title," Anthony D'Allesandro notes for Deadline.

Compare that to "Wicked: For Good," which sits at 67% fresh and has been, uh, not so kindly regarded by critics such as The New Yorker's Justin Chang, and you have the scene set for a scintillating box-office race.

"Zootopia" may or may not have the right makeup to kick past Comcast and NBCU's "Wicked." Regardless, Michael Cavanaugh (President) and Brian Roberts (CEO) at Comcast should pat themselves on the back for at least getting a game contender out in the ring.

Problem is, should they somehow pull an upset and top "Zootopia," a nine-foot-tall blue alien (Avatar) is waiting in the wings for round two.

Related: AMC stock secretly relies on these upcoming Disney films