Fed Chair Powell leads parade of speakers this week as markets test dovish rate message

Two appearances from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, alongside the newly-increased run of Treasury bond auctions, will come amid a dearth of corporate earnings and data releases this week.

Nov 6, 2023 - 19:30

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Fed Chair Powell leads parade of speakers this week as markets test dovish rate message

Wall Street will look to hold onto the best rally of the year this week as investors face a five-day run bereft of headline risks put packed appearances from with Federal Reserve officials that could challenge the market's consensus that global interest rates have peaked.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to the Division of Research and Statistics' centennial conference before the market opens on Wednesday, highlight a busy calendar of central bank speakers that could either confirm or test the market's dovish interpretation of last week's policy meeting.

Powell is also slated to speak at the Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference at 2:00 pm eastern time Thursday.

The Fed held its key rate unchanged for a second consecutive month, at between 5.25% and 5.5%, but hinted that near-term inflation risks were balanced, and noted a modestly cooling job market and the impact of its prior hikes on the world's biggest economy.

That has investors betting on a springtime cut from the Fed, although Powell told reporters last Wednesday that he and his colleagues on the Open Markets Committee did not discuss that topic over their two-day meeting in Washington.

Markets will hear from Fed Governors Lisa Cook today, as well as Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson Thursday, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan slated to speak Tuesday.

Bond markets will also be tracked closely this week as the Treasury conducts its first round of auctions following last week's borrowing estimate, which boosted its funding schedule by $9 billion to $112 billion, in coupon-bearing sales for the quarter.

The Treasury, which is tasked with providing regular and predictable funding at the least possible cost to taxpayers, said it will conduct auctions of $48 billion for 3-year notes, the first of which will come Tuesday, $40 billion for 10-year notes, which start on Wednesday $24 billion in 30-year bonds, the first of which is slated for Thursday.

Beyond the Fed focus, investors are also looking at a modest calendar of corporate earnings releases this week, with only 50 S&P 500 companies slated to report September quarter updates over the next five days, including Disney DIS, Occidental Petroleum OXY, Warner Bros Discovery WBD, and Uber Technologies UBER.

The third quarter earnings season, however, has been largely a pleasant surprise, outside of muted near-term forecasts from mega-cap tech stocks such as Apple AAPL, with collective S&P 500 profits now forecast to rise 5.7% from last year to $483.6 billion.

With around four-fifths of the benchmark reporting so far, 81.6% have topped Street earnings forecasts, a pace that's well ahead of the 73.6% pace over the prior four quarters and the long-term average of around 66.5%.

Profits are set to rise by around 7% from last year's levels over the three months ending in December, as well, to a share-weighted $465 billion, according to LSEG data.