Financial loss from drop in Canadian, Mexican travel keeps worsening

While relations between the United States and Canada have ebbed and flowed since the start of Doland Trump's second term in the White House, the dropoff in tourist numbers amid tariffs, "51st state" jokes, and a freakout over an accurate Ronald Reagan ad have led to a historic dropoff in Canadian travel to the U.S.

The monthly Statistics Canada report for September 2025 shows that the number of Canadians coming home from trips to the U.S. was down 27% from the same time last year while airlines such Air Canada and WestJet cut back service to smaller U.S. cities such as Austin and Jacksonville due to low demand.

In August 2025, Las Vegas mayor Shelley Berkley held a press conference in which she asked "everybody in Canada, [to] please come." As Sin City's economy relies above all on its tourism industry, the city was hit particularly hard by the dropoff in Canadian and Mexican visitors.

"Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver"

Back in February, the U.S. Travel Association initially predicted that even a 10% reduction in Canadian travel would cost the U.S. travel industry at least $2.1 billion and 140,000 in lost jobs. 

An updated November report from the U.S. Travel Association now predicts that while the total decline in international travel will be just 6.3% by the time the 2025 numbers are calculated, total losses to the U.S. travel industry will equal $5.7 billion.

Total visits are expected to fall to 67.9 million, since due to their countries' proximity, Canadians and Mexicans have long made up the lion's share of foreign arrivals to the U.S.

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"Total inbound travel spending is forecast to fall 3.2% to $173 billion for the year," the report's authors write. "Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver of this decrease, and the volume of visits from countries other than Canada are expected to be flat."

When looked at across different countries, international travel to the United States is expected to be at just 85% of what was observed in 2019 or the last year before the numbers were thrown off by the Covid pandemic.

"If broader economic conditions deteriorate, travel is likely to decrease"

While the U.S. Travel Association report does not note specific concerns about entering the United States from particular countries, it says visitors from around the world are, on the whole, put off by "potential increases in visa fees, extended wait times for visa applications and renewals, and negative sentiment towards the U.S. in key markets."

In June, the Canadian government updated its travel advisory to the U.S. to explicitly state that travelers need to "comply and be forthcoming in all interactions with border authorities” because those denied entry "could be detained while awaiting deportation."

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The advisory also warned of potential problems for LGBTQ+ travelers as CNN reported that the Trump administration repeatedly tried to target recognition of passports with a nonbinary marker.

"Consumer uncertainty remains significant, and if broader economic conditions deteriorate travel is likely to decrease as well," the U.S. Travel Association report concludes.

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