IDF intel assesses Hamas will 'survive as terror and guerrilla group' post-war: Report

A document from Israel’s military intelligence, shared with Israeli leaders this week, cautioned that even if the IDF manages to dismantle Hamas as an organised military entity in Gaza, it would persist as both “a terror group and a guerrilla group”, according to a report.

According to a Times of Israel report, citing a Channel 12 report aired on Thursday evening, the document, drawn up by the research division of IDF Military Intelligence, reportedly also states that “authentic support remains” for Hamas among Gazans.

As there is presently no active initiative to develop a post-war plan for Gaza, the document additionally cautions that without such preparation “Gaza will become an area in deep crisis.”

According to the report, Channel 12 investigative journalist Ilana Dayan said that the document was presented on Monday to Israel’s political echelon, after it was discussed last weekend by senior IDF officers, Shin Bet officials and members of the National Security Council.

Dayan said the “bottom line” is that the document constitutes a warning from those in military intelligence who carry out such assessments that “Hamas will survive this [IDF] campaign as a terror group and a guerrilla group.”

“In this regard, at least,” she suggested, “there won’t be absolute victory” — as predicted and demanded by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu since the start of the war.

The IDF Spokesman’s Office declined to comment on the TV report, added the report.

Israeli authorities have consistently voiced their objective in the conflict as the eradication of Hamas from the Strip. However, numerous countries and officials worldwide caution against the feasibility of such a goal.

In November, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged that while Israel could significantly diminish the threat posed by Hamas, completely eliminating the group and its ideology seemed improbable.

Kirby emphasised that military and other measures could curtail the group’s resources, training, recruitment, and planning of attacks, yet eradicating its ideology remained a formidable challenge.

A December poll, conducted during a weeklong truce in late November, revealed that 57 per cent of respondents in Gaza deemed Hamas’s October 7 actions justified, with 42 per cent expressing overall support for the group.

Throughout the conflict, IDF chief Herzi Halevi has primarily discussed “dismantling” Hamas rather than outright elimination, acknowledging implicitly that even prolonged warfare might not eliminate every military and terror threat emanating from the Strip.

The belief that Hamas will endure Israel’s efforts aimed at its destruction is echoed by regional Arab stakeholders. They convened recently to strategise Gaza’s reconstruction post-conflict. Saudi Arabia, hosting the meeting, included Qatar, recognising Doha’s sway over Hamas, whose political leaders it hosts.

While the Arab nations participating in the meeting prefer Hamas not to be part of Gaza’s political leadership after the war, they anticipate the group will endure in some capacity. They suggest a degree of Hamas’s cooperation will be necessary to advance Gaza’s rehabilitation successfully, a senior diplomat told The Times of Israel.

With inputs from agencies