In Kashmir, Ghulam Nabi Azad's new party to take off soon; BJP set to benefit from division of Muslim votes

From being a rift within the Congress, the resignation of the former chief minister and senior Congress leader, Ghulam Nabi Azad, and seven ex-MLAs from the party has come as a shot in the arm for the BJP.

The BJP sees Azad’s new party which, his loyalists said, will be announced within a week, dividing the Muslim vote bank of opposition to help it rise to power in Jammu and Kashmir.

Since the revocation of Article 370 on 5 August 2019, this is the first marker of new power politics taking shape in Jammu and Kashmir. Azad who has been himself an MLA from the predominately Muslim area of Bhaderwah could erode the vote bank of NC, Congress, and PDP, who have lost their faces to the other rival parties, in Muslim majority areas of the Jammu division.

In the six districts of Reasi, Rajouri, Poonch, Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban there are at least 16 Assembly seats on which either the Muslim voters are in majority or live in significant numbers. The number of seats in Jammu and Kashmir has risen from 87 in the 2014 elections to 90 in a recent delimitation exercise. The seats in Jammu rose by six and the region got 43 seats against 47 in Kashmir while four Assembly seats of the Ladakh region were reduced from the total tally after it became a separate Union Territory following the abrogation of Article 370.

Now with Azad’s party a possibility, the Assembly seats in Muslim pockets will witness a multi-lateral contest between NC, Congress, PDP and the newly formed Apni Party, and the Azad loyalists.

At the electoral level, this is a major victory for the BJP, said former deputy chief and senior BJP leader, Kavinder Gupta. “Congress is a party of sycophants and Azad Saheb who made the party what it is today was badly ignored by the party that forced him to resign,” he said. “We would certainly benefit with the division of votes,” Gupta added.

Former MLAs, GM Saroori of Inderwal and Chaudhary Akram from Surankote Assembly segment, which has a significant Muslim population have already joined Azad camp, which has also been supported by three other ex-MLAs of Congress from Kashmir and two others from Hindu areas of Jammu.

Saroori, however, said that the party which will be formally launched from Jammu and Kashmir within a week will fight the electoral battle at the national level as well. He said it will be founded on secular lines. “The elections in Jammu and Kashmir will remain our main focus,” he said.

Former MLA, Mohammad Amin Bhat, who has also joined Azad said that they are holding discussions with like-minded “people to join the new party.”

The split within the Congress has come at a time when the main opposition of BJP in Jammu and Kashmir, the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), saw division with its main constituent NC saying that it will contest all 90 assembly seats.

However, the leaders who left Congress have also been unhappy with the party choosing Vikar Rasool Banihali as its president in Jammu and Kashmir who is relatively junior to several others in the party.

Reacting to these developments, senior Congress leader GN Monga however said that the “Congress has a committed vote bank”, adding that “even if an ordinary worker leaves the party it certainly has consequences.”

The resignations within the Congress also come at a time when the parties like Apni Party and People’s Conference (PC) believe that the restoration of Article 370 was an uphill task. Apni party, led by former Minister, Altaf Bukhari, saw five ex-MLAs leave Congress and the PDP in Muslim majority areas of Jammu to join him while the majority of the leaders of PDP in Kashmir have joined PC or Apni party.

Former minister and Apni party leader Zulfikar Chaudhary said that the contest in the Rajouri-Poonch belt in Jammu would be largely decided by the leader’s appeal among the people. “Factors like ST status for Paharis could also be a significant factor. But I don’t think that the Pahari Muslims would vote for BJP if they are given reservation by Govt, they would vote for the other parties then,” he said.

The BJP saw its seats rise in the aftermath of the 2008 agitation against the transfer of land to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) that finally propelled it to power in 2014 as it increased its seat tally to 25 while its alliance partner PDP got 28 seats and NC and Congress respectively managed 15 and 12 seats in last elections. All major political parties remained open to engagement with the BJP and attended the all-party meeting convened by Prime Minister Narendra Modi last year.

Saroori however said that Azad’s party will fill the vacuum of a “real secular party” in Jammu and Kashmir, adding the number of seats on which it will contest or a pre-poll alliance would be decided later. “We will register the party with the Election Commission of India,” he said.

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