Is Nitish Kumar set to be sworn in as CM with BJP support? What it means for Bihar?

It’s all but finalised. Speculation is at an all-time high that Nitish Kumar is dumping the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the INDIA bloc, and will be joining hands with the BJP once again.

Different sources have reportedly said that the Janata Dal (United) {JDU} chief will resign and take oath as chief minister once again on Sunday (28 January). If reports are to be believed then Sushil Kumar Modi will be taking oath as the deputy chief minister of Bihar. As per News18, the JD(U) has sought time from the Raj Bhawan this evening.

If Nitish Kumar does switch over to the BJP on Sunday, this would be his fifth political turn — a move that has even turned him the title of ‘Paltu Ram’ in politics.

We analyse what went wrong with the JD(U)-RJD alliance that lead Nitish back into the arms of the BJP and what this switch would mean for the INDIA bloc.

A swearing-in on Sunday?

Multiple reports have said that the Bihar chief minister will resign over the weekend, and he will then take the oath as chief minister on Sunday with the support of the BJP.

It’s important to note here that in the Bihar numbers game, the JD(U) has 45 seats, while the RJD has 79, with the BJP having 78. The Congress holds 19 seats, while the CPI (M-L) has 12, two are with the CPI(M) and CPI, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) has four seats, and the AIMIM has one, plus one Independent legislator. The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly is 122.

An NDTV report has said that Nitish Kumar’s likely swearing-in on Sunday with the BJP, will also see the swearing-in of two deputy chief ministers from the BJP.

Rumours of this possible move received a boost after the JD(U) boss cancelled all his engagements for 28 January, including addressing a public meeting. Moreover, the Bihar governor, who was to travel to Goa tomorrow evening, has cancelled his plans.

When asked about the same, Sushil Kumar Modi told IndiaToday that the “doors which are closed can open”, calling politics a “game of possibilities”. He, however, declined to speak further on the issue.

At this time of uncertainty, former Lok Janshakti Party president Chirag Paswan disclosed that he was in touch with the top BJP leadership but termed as hypothetical the question whether Chief Minister Nitish Kumar would be acceptable to him as a new NDA partner.

He was quoted as telling news agency PTI, “I have been in constant touch with the top BJP leadership. I spoke to them before coming here last evening when I held a meeting of party workers. I am going back to Delhi. I have cancelled my trip to late Karpoori Thakur’s village in Samastipur and to Sitamarhi, which I had been wanting to visit after having paid obeisance at Ayodhya.”

What led to this possible split?

Rumblings of an unhappy Nitish Kumar have been doing the rounds for quite some time. Some JD(U) leaders have been reportedly saying that Nitish has been upset with the INDIA bloc (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) and their lack of coordination.

According to the JD(U) leaders, the Congress is to blame for this and they have stated that the Grand Old Party’s refusal to discuss seat-sharing has been a major bone of contention. Moreover, Nitish Kumar is not happy, as he has failed to gain a seat in the alliance, which he believes is in line with his stature. A News18 report states that it was indicated to the JD(U) by the Congress that Mamata Banerjee may have a problem with Nitish Kumar being appointed as the convener. This is seemed to have irritated Kumar so much that he told Congress that they might as well opt for Lalu Prasad Yadav as the convener.

Kumar is also upset that even though he played an instrumental part in getting Mamata Banerjee and Arvind Kejriwal on the same table as the Congress, he was not given his due.

For the 72-year-old, who also holds the honour of being Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister, his alliance with the RJD in the state is also teetering. Nitish Kumar has been upset with the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led RJD, blaming them for impacting governance. He has also slammed RJD ministers in his Cabinet for taking ‘important decisions’ without his consultation, reported the NDTV.

However, a tweet by Lalu’s daughter, Rohini Acharya, seemed to be the final straw. Earlier, Nitish Kumar, at an event to mark Karpoori Thakur’s birth anniversary, had taken potshots at political parties promoting family members in politics. Reacting to the comments, Lalu’s daughter had written on X, “Some people declare themselves as socialist stalwarts but their ideology changes like the wind.”

“Often, people cannot see their own shortcomings but continue to throw mud at others with impudence,” she wrote in another tweet. Incidentally, these posts have since been deleted.

However, it seems that the damage has been done. At the time, surprisingly, the BJP had sided with Nitish and demanded an apology from Lalu’s daughter.

Another ‘palti’ in the making?

If Nitish Kumar does, in fact, switch sides on Sunday, he will rightly be called ‘Paltu Ram’ of Bihar politics.

The JD(U) chief had first parted ways with the BJP ahead of the 2014 general elections. In the run-up to the November 2015 elections to the 243-member state Assembly, Nitish joined hands with archrival Lalu Prasad-led RJD and the Congress and some other smaller parties to form a ‘Grand Alliance’ which won 178 seats, with Nitish again taking over as the chief minister.

In 2017, he walked out of the Mahagathbandhan and joined hands with the BJP once again. But that return didn’t last long and in August of 2022, he once again walked away from the BJP and joined hands with the RJD.

What happens to the INDIA bloc?

Nitish’s possible ‘ghar wapsi’ with the BJP doesn’t bode well for the INDIA alliance. But as of now, it seems that the RJD and Congress don’t seem too perturbed. A Bihar Congress leader, Prem Chandra Mishra, told ANI, “I can say with confidence Nitish Kumar will remain with the alliance… (he) has resolved to throw BJP out and we trust him.”

RJD party spokesperson Shakti Yadav said the tie-up talk reflected a “scared” BJP and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav spoke about the state government fulfilling its promises on employment.

But if it does happen, it’s a win-win for the BJP and will be damaging to the INDIA grouping, which is already in doldrums with West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and Punjab chief minister Bhagwant Singh Mann announcing that their parties, the TMC and AAP respectively, will go solo in the Lok Sabha elections expected in April-May.

With inputs from agencies