Nvidia stock gets major reality check on '$100B' number

There's no denying it: Nvidia (NVDA) is priced for perfection.

Regardless of your personal opinion, the standard mega-cap argument is no longer valid, with the tech giant now firmly in the perpetual AI capex machine space. This means any issues with OpenAI will lead to a sharp hit in the sentiment.

CEO Jensen Huang swooped in, though, saving the day with some sharp statements in Taipei.

"No, no, nothing like that,” he said, when asked if the investment would be more than $100 billion.

What does that mean for traders? It means, very simply, Nvidia is saying it will help pay for one of the world's top consumers of AI computing, even if it is already guiding to $65 billion quarters.

The Nvidia stock angle investors should anchor to

NVDA is now trading at a price that requires clear confirmation that "AI demand stays hot."

• The market valuation of NVDA was around $4.64T at the end of the day on Jan. 31.
• Trailing P/E is at 53.81, and forward P/E is about 29.94 (Yahoo Finance key metrics).

At that multiple, the market wants growth and ecosystem financing to stop "pulling forward" growth; that is the current concern about Big Tech expenditures.

The 3 numbers that explain why Huang is doing PR on a weekend

$57.0B: revenue base (and it’s still accelerating)

Nvidia’s fiscal Q3 2026 (ended Oct. 26, 2025) was a blockbuster quarter.

• Revenue:$57.006 billion (up 22% QoQ, 62% YoY)
• Net income:$31.910 billion (up 21% QoQ, 65% YoY)
• GAAP gross margin:73.4%
• EPS (diluted):$1.30

The revenue is not imaginary. In fact, it's already here.

$65.0B: the guide on which NVDA trades

• Nvidia guided fiscal Q4 revenue to $65.0 billion ±2%.
• It also guided GAAP gross margin to 74.8% ±50 bps.

The OpenAI story is significant because the stock is a running referendum on whether Nvidia can keep posting statistics like this without halting demand.

$60.6B: the liquidity that lets Nvidia write “huge” checks

Nvidia’s 10-Q indicates the following.

• Cash & cash equivalents:$11.486 billion (Oct. 26, 2025)
• Marketable securities:$49.122 billion
• Total cash + cash equivalents + marketable securities:$60.608 billion
• Shares outstanding (as of Nov. 14, 2025): 24.3 billion

Huang can claim “the largest investment we've ever made,” and the market pays attention because of his financial sheet.

Where OpenAI fits: It’s not a “friendship,” but a demand moat

In the same results announcement, Nvidia spoke about a strategic relationship with OpenAI.

The goal is to use at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems for OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure.

That is not small.

More Nvidia:

• Nvidia’s China chip problem isn’t what most investors think
• Jim Cramer issues blunt 5-word verdict on Nvidia stock
• This is how Nvidia keeps customers from switching
• Bank of America makes a surprise call on Nvidia-backed stock

Nvidia's statement was straightforward: "Blackwell sales are skyrocketing, and cloud GPUs are completely sold out."

In one line, Nvidia wants the biggest AI labs funded and scaling because those labs turn into repeat buyers of Blackwell-era compute.

“Okay, but is this just circular financing?”

Now that is where the bear narrative hangs in the balance.

And it’s why Huang’s “not $100 billion” line matters.

Here's the backdrop.

• Nvidia's plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI has encountered obstacles due to internal concerns within the company, The Wall Street Journal reported.
• Huang says it's "nonsense" that he's not satisfied with OpenAI and that Nvidia will still be part of the round, but not for anything close to $100 billion.
• At the same time, OpenAI is trying to raise up to $100 billion at a value of approximately $830 billion, according to Reuters. Amazon is also in negotiations that might lead to a deal for up to $50 billion.

The market cares because the AI stack is so large that investment rounds look like major events.

NVDA’s hidden “tell” is that buybacks didn’t stop

If Nvidia feels the financial pressure, here is where you will see it first.

From its 10-Q:

• Nvidia repurchased 70M shares for $12.6 billion in Q3 FY26.
• Nvidia repurchased 262M shares for $36.7 billion in the first nine months of FY26.
• It was authorized to repurchase up to $62.2 billion more, as of Oct. 26, 2025.

So here's the true stock angle. If Nvidia can continue to buy back shares on a large scale while simultaneously supporting the ecosystem, it strengthens the "AI cash engine" story on which the multiple is based.

What would actually move NVDA stock from here

NVDA stock requires tangible catalysts rather than just positive sentiment. This includes three main drivers.

• The size and structure of the OpenAI check, including whether it is tied to GPU purchases and whether it is an equity stake or a compute/lease commitment
• Whether major hyperscalers such as Microsoft (MSFT) continue to spend at a pace that is acceptable to the markets
• Whether, in Nvidia’s next guidance range, $65 billion looks like the floor or the ceiling

In the end, NVDA is selling at a price that reflects confidence in the product.

Huang's remark was meant to safeguard perceptions that AI demand is still strong and that Nvidia is still the tollbooth.

Related: Microsoft tests Windows 11 change that could reshape your desktop