UK: Rishi Sunak's party expected to taste defeat in three by-elections

Three by-elections in England are taking place this Thursday, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s ruling Conservatives are bracing for defeat in each of them as the effects of inflation-stricken Britain’s economic difficulties bite.

The Tories are defending sizable majorities in the seats of London, Yorkshire in northern England, and Somerset in the southwest, but they appear to be losing support as the recent scandals and the grim economic outlook take their toll.

The general election is scheduled for next year, and the races are taking place while the main opposition Labour party enjoys a 20 percent poll lead and looks set to recapture power for the first time in more than ten years.

In Sunak’s first significant electoral test since assuming office in October, Labour, led by Keir Starmer, won local council elections in early May throughout large swaths of England, while Sunak’s Conservatives suffered severe defeats.

Since March of last year, the opposition has won five by-elections, but only Wakefield in Yorkshire was taken from the Tories.

In the neighbourhood of Selby and Ainsty, where Nigel Adams resigned as a Conservative MP last month after failing to receive the former prime minister Boris Johnson’s peerage nomination, Labour is now attempting to repeat that June 2022 accomplishment.

Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency is in northwest London, where Labour is also hoping to win after the scandal-plagued former leader resigned as an MP last month and set off the election.

He resigned after learning that a parliamentary committee made up of members from both parties had found that he had lied to lawmakers about organisations that broke the lockdown during the Covid epidemic and had recommended a 90-day suspension.

Since Tory MP David Warburton resigned after admitting to using cocaine, the Liberal Democrats are determined to defeat a 20,000-vote Tory majority in Somerton and Frome.

After Liz Truss’ dismal 44-day premiership, Sunak succeeded at first in calming the financial markets that had been shaken by her extreme tax-cutting plan.

However, the former finance minister, 43, has had difficulty turning around his party’s deteriorating fortunes, which began to happen during Johnson’s “Partygate” affair.

Sunak’s efforts to turn things around have been hindered in part by consistently rising inflation, which has recently frightened the markets once more.

The worst cost of living crisis in a generation is continuing, with interest rates at their highest level in 15 years and driving up the cost of borrowing for mortgages and other purposes.

Sunak began the year by promising voters five major things, including lowering wait times for the National Health Service (NHS), increasing the economy, and halving inflation.

On the majority of his promises, he has made little progress, and there are still persistent worries that the UK may enter a recession this year as high interest rates restrain expenditure.

According to YouGov, Sunak’s net favorability has reached its lowest point (-40) since he took office, with two-thirds of Britons expressing an unfavourable opinion of him.

On Thursday, his aides downplayed the party’s chances while admonishing that there was still time for a Tory comeback before the next general election.

“As you’ve heard before, by-elections for incumbent governments are very difficult,” Sunak’s press secretary told reporters on the eve of the by-elections, adding that the Conservative Party was “most focused” on the general election.

(With agency inputs)