What Arvind Kejriwal’s rise could mean for Opposition before 2024 elections

There are already too many aspirants to address the nation from the Red Fort in 2024.

There is always Rahul Gandhi, coming of age, according to friendly press, since he joined politics in 2004. His party, the Congress, still rules in two states, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and is a junior and nominal partner in Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Jharkhand.

The other aspirant, Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, has a thumping majority in the state. But lately, she also has a thumping heartbeat over relentless ED and CBI arrests and spectacular exposé of her regime’s corruption. She wants to be PM too, and has been lobbying quite brazenly for it.

Then there is K Chandrashekhar Rao, the CM of Telangana, who has been quite the lobby cat himself. Buoyed by two terms and a final ambition most successful but ageing politicians nurse, KCR has been making his moves on Delhi.

Alas, he is not the only aging and successful politician nursing that ambition. There is Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, who switched alliances recently eyeing the cream in Delhi.

In the ageing heavyweight category is another silent, wily contender: NCP chief Sharad Pawar. He can move towards his object of desire with the most delicate stealth and guile.

In this race enters Arvind Kejriwal. His AAP has been rising since winning Punjab with as decisive a majority as Delhi. New fund avenues have opened for him. And while the ED already got one of his stalwarts, Satyendar Jain, in jail and is closing in on his deputy in Delhi, Manish Sisodia, his influence in national politics is on the ascent.

If Kejriwal’s AAP continues to rise, what will it mean for Opposition politics before 2024 general elections?

The AAP’s going to Gujarat, which has apparently angered the BJP, may further rattle an already weakened Congress there. If the AAP survives the corruption allegations and campaigns well there, it may even emerge as the second largest party. Kejriwal is already playing at the social indices in Gujarat, promising money transfer to women, besides better health and education.

If the AAP gets a foothold in Gujarat and the Congress slips in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the Gandhis will have seriously diminished negotiating power in pre-poll alliances.

Mamata won’t like Kejriwal’s success either. Insiders say the two have fallen out. The AAP even staged a token protest in Kolkata lately against the TMC’s corruption.

Language could be a sore point for Mamata, Pawar or KCR. Kejriwal is from the heartland and fluent in Hindi.

Also, Hindu voters may be more amenable to Kejriwal than Rahul, Mamata, Nitish, KCR or Pawar, who are seen as forever pandering to Muslims. Kejriwal has decided not to restrict himself to 20 percent of the pie, for which anyway there is a stampede of ‘secular’ parties. He wishes to play the 80 percent game. Which is why the ostensible Hanuman bhakti, words of support for Kashmiri Pandits, and accusing the BJP of settling Rohingyas and Bangladeshis in Delhi.

That said, ruling in one-and-a-half states getting noticed in a couple more may not necessarily mean being ahead of race in the Opposition space. A rampaging BJP, crippling corruption charges for a supposedly anti-corruption party, lack of organisational strength nationally, and fluid opportunism paraded as ideology may swiftly undo the momentum that seems to be with the AAP today.

But if it achieves a measure of success from here, it will ironically mean a more fractious Opposition and a more bitter and treacherous fight for primacy in the challenger space. It may ultimately be a raucous bunch backstabbing one another, and yet hoping to come together after the polls depending on each one’s strength.

Because alone, none of them can take on the BJP. And united, they cannot stand.

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