With Ajit Pawar’s entry, is BJP trying to ‘replace’ Eknath Shinde as Maharashtra CM?

A day after his nephew Ajit Pawar’s rebellion, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) supremo Sharad Pawar announced in Satara district’s Karad in Maharashtra Monday (3 July) that he will “rebuild the party”. Accusing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of creating fear in society, the senior Pawar said, “My fight against communal forces begins today. Such rebellions happen. I will rebuild the party”.

The octogenarian also said that rebels can return to the party but there is a “time limit”.

After Shiv Sena last year, now NCP is witnessing a rebellion in Maharashtra with Ajit Pawar joining the Eknath Shinde-Devendra Fadnavis government as a deputy chief minister. Along with junior Pawar, eight other NCP leaders, including Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse-Patil, Hasan Mushrif and Dhananjay Munde among others, were sworn in as ministers at Raj Bhavan in Mumbai on Sunday (2 July).

#WATCH | NCP President Sharad Pawar addresses party workers in Satara after Ajit Pawar joins BJP-Shinde Shiv Sena govt in Maharashtra pic.twitter.com/O3LDambrIS

— ANI (@ANI) July 3, 2023

Following the move, NCP’s Maharashtra unit president Jayant Patil said that the party has moved a disqualification petition against Ajit and the other rebel MLAs, reported PTI. He also said that the defected MLAs will be given a chance to return but action will be taken against those who do not.

With Maharashtra now having a “triple engine” government, how will it impact chief minister Shinde’s position in the alliance between his Shiv Sena, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP camp? What does Ajit Pawar’s rebellion mean for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)?

Is Ajit Pawar a threat to Eknath Shinde?

The Opposition MVA, comprising of Sharad Pawar-led NCP, Congress and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray), believes so.

The NCP said Sunday that the BJP is trying to replace Shinde as chief minister by inducting Ajit Pawar into the Maharashtra government.

“Eknath Shinde’s power will be reduced,” said NCP’s Maharashtra chief Patil was quoted as saying by NDTV.

He claimed that “some people did not like the way” Shinde works. “Now to reduce his (Shinde’s) importance, Ajit Pawar has been added to the government that’s already in the majority,” Patil added.

A similar claim was made by Shiv Sena (UBT) today (3 July) in an editorial in its mouthpiece Saamana. “Ajit Pawar has made a record of taking oath as deputy chief minister. This time the ‘deal’ is strong,” it read.

“Pawar has not gone there for the deputy CM’s post. Chief minister Eknath Shinde and rebel MLAs of the Sena would be disqualified soon and Pawar would be coronated,” the editorial claimed, as per news agency PTI.

VIDEO | “The CM of Maharashtra is about to get changed. The 16 MLAs with Eknath Shinde will be disqualified soon as per the Supreme Court’s order. This is the reason why Ajit Pawar and others have been inducted,” says Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut a day after NCP’s Ajit… pic.twitter.com/xUbAAHAn9v

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) July 3, 2023

Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan also asserted that Shinde and other MLAs who engineered a split in the undivided Shiv Sena last year, leading to the collapse of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government, will be “disqualified”.

Speaking to NDTV, Chavan stated: “If they get disqualified, then we will need a new chief minister. Now have the BJP given a promise to Ajit Pawar that he will succeed Eknath Shinde? We do not know”.

Are there tensions between Shinde-led Sena and BJP?

In the past few months, leaders from the Shinde-led Sena and the BJP have made remarks upsetting the other, noted ThePrint.

These tensions ratcheted up after the Shiv Sena (Shinde) put out an advertisement in Maharashtra’s newspapers, citing a survey, that Shinde was the most favoured choice for the chief minister’s post. It also downplayed the importance of deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, further irking the BJP.

To placate its alliance partner, another ad was published later, featuring Fadnavis’s picture, to highlight people’s preference for the Shinde-Fadnavis government.

ALSO READ: Can Ajit Pawar, 8 other NCP rebels avoid disqualification in Maharashtra?

What do experts say?

With Ajit Pawar and a bunch of NCP MLAs joining the Maharashtra government, discontentment is expected to arise in the Shinde camp over the allotment of Maharashtra Cabinet berths.

Out of the total 43 berths, only 14 seats are vacant after the entry of nine MLAs from the NCP.

According to an Indian Express report, before Ajit Pawar-led NCP legislators came into the picture and there were 23 vacant seats in the Maharashtra Cabinet, Shinde Sena was vying for at least 11 berths for its MLAs.

But now, a maximum of six Shinde-led Sena lawmakers can be made part of the ministry, the report added.

Ajit Pawar’s entry has also ensured that the BJP does not have to rely solely on Shinde Sena to retain power in Maharashtra.

A political observer told Indian Express that the saffron party has no “compulsion” to maintain the alliance with Shinde Sena. “This will come as a setback for Shinde and his MLAs. The party may also no longer find the free space in the government and in the coalition it earlier enjoyed”, the observer noted.

Speaking to Hindustan Times (HT) newspaper, a BJP leader, who did not wish to be identified, said that with Ajit Pawar becoming a part of the government, the saffron party could now “make inroads” into 11 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state that were bastions of the NCP. “These NCP bastions have a completely different voter base. Our only option was to create a dent in the party by poaching its leaders. This will help us enter districts in western Maharashtra, including Pune, Satara and others.”

The BJP leader also admitted that keeping Shinde “in check” is the saffron party’s “foremost” agenda. “We have managed to create an alternative to the Shinde faction by inducting some of Maharashtra’s stalwarts into the cabinet,” the leader added.

An expert has also predicted that there are likely to be rifts between Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP MLAs.
Sanjay Patil, a research assistant with Mumbai University’s politics and civics department, told ThePrint: “The Shinde group doesn’t really have too much space for an excess. The party’s existence is due to the BJP. There might be disagreements, but the Shinde-led Shiv Sena doesn’t have the political might to openly voice them”.

As per Indian Express, Shinde’s say in the government may get undermined as Ajit Pawar has more experience in governance and is seen as a “strong administrator” and “crafty politician”. Moreover, the NCP leader is also believed to enjoy warm ties with Fadnavis, reported HT.

What about the MVA?

Two out of the three MVA partners have seen a split in their parties since last year. The Congress, which is the only party in the alliance so far with its flock intact, is also watching its leaders, Chavan told NDTV.

Since Ajit Pawar outsmarted his uncle, MVA partners Thackeray-led Shiv Sena and Congress have expressed support for Sharad Pawar.

However, with the split in NCP, the future of MVA has become uncertain. The rebellion in NCP is expected to weaken the Opposition alliance ahead of the crucial Lok Sabha and Maharashtra Assembly polls next year.

Like the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP will now have to “rebuild a significant part of its organisation”, noted ThePrint.

In the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, the BJP has 106 MLAs, NCP 53, Congress 44, Shiv Sena (Shinde) 40, Shiv Sena (UBT) 16 and the rest 29 seats are held by smaller parties and independents.

While Ajit Pawar’s side has claimed that they have the support of at least 36 NCP MLAs out of the total 53, sources in Sharad Pawar’s camp have denied this, saying the rebels do not have the backing of more than half of the legislators, reported Indian Express.

Moreover, Mumbai University’s Patil told ThePrint that the timing of Ajit Pawar’s induction could be due to an “increased frenzy” of Opposition parties to come together against the BJP ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
“This is a message to opposition parties that if you try to do this, you will either become a Shiv Sena or an NCP,” he added.

With inputs from agencies

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