Your career vs artificial intelligence: Microsoft study names 40 jobs that may not survive beyond 2026

Last week, Microsoft released a study that has sent shockwaves through the world of work, highlighting that 40 different jobs are “transformable” today, meaning that core aspects of the job could be replaced or enhanced by AI. As of today, Generative AI can perform 40 different job roles today, suggesting that transformation of these roles might be much closer than many might have expected.

Microsoft’s Study

Microsoft conducted a study that culminated in an “AI applicability score.” Microsoft used an analysis of over 200,000 actual workplace interactions with its Copilot AI to measure how much an average employee’s job responsibilities overlap with tasks and functions that AI systems are capable of doing already. The company provided a score based on this overlap and determined how exposed a job role is to being influenced by generative AI. Jobs that score highly on the index are the most at risk.

Jobs identified in the report that Microsoft says are “highly transformable” based on the AI Applicability Index:

Jobs on the list include those of writers, editors, translators, interpreters, historians, data scientists, market research analysts, public relations specialists, telemarketers, customer service representatives, telephone operators and web developers. These are jobs where the skills demanded, are all areas where large language models like Microsoft’s Copilot and similar systems like Google’s Bard and OpenAI’s ChatGPT have already excelled.

Implications for the Workforce

Microsoft’s new report doesn’t predict the end of the jobs on its list. It simply indicates which jobs overlap the most with AI’s current capabilities. Microsoft itself states, “The Microsoft AI Applicability Index is a look at where and how AI can support work. The index is not intended to be a measure of where human jobs will disappear, but instead highlight jobs where technology can augment or support.” In other words, the report simply illuminates the abilities of AI today and its potential to be used in conjunction with human employees to perform certain tasks. While humans will still need to be in the role of an editor or data scientist, certain tasks within those jobs may be performed or aided by AI in the near future.

AI and the Future of Work

The Microsoft study is the latest salvo in the debate on AI and the future of work. In 2023, Google co-founder and AI pioneer Geoffrey Hinton predicted that 2026 would be a “job shock year.” He stated that by 2026, AI would be powerful enough to make entire careers obsolete.

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has had a different take on the future, predicting that Generative AI will create a new era of working alongside computers, in which humans and AI will augment each other. Nadella has discussed this at length before. In a discussion at SXSW, he said, “AI doesn’t replace us; it supercharges us.” Nadella sees a future where jobs will be “transformed” as opposed to simply replaced.

As we move into 2026, the most important lesson for workers to take from the Microsoft study and others like it is that adaptability and a willingness to learn new skills and embrace new tools will be key to remaining competitive in the workforce of the future.